Modeling the Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems under Uncertainty
Modeling the Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems under Uncertainty
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发表时间：
2018
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通讯作者：
Jin-Zhu Yu
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作者：
Jin-Zhu Yu
本研究的目的是探讨不确定的相互依存性对基础设施系统复原力评估的影响。现有的分析相互依存基础设施的模型没有考虑到相互依存关系的强度和类型的潜在不确定性。考虑到这些因素，本文提出了一个评估相互依赖的基础设施可维护性的概率框架。重点对物理相互依赖的不确定性进行了初步分析。案例研究表明，随着互联组件之间距离的增加，物理相互依赖的强度也会增加。考虑到相互依赖中的不确定性导致随着物理相互依赖强度的增加，网络组件的平均功能的更大差异。
The objective of this study is to explore the impact of uncertain interdependencies on the resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. Existing models for analyzing interdependent infrastructures do not account for the underlying uncertainties in the strength and type of interdependent relations. Taking these into account, this paper proposes a probabilistic framework to assess the serviceability of interdependent infrastructures. A preliminary analysis is presented focused on the uncertainty of physical interdependencies. The case study reveals that the strength of a physical interdependency increases as the distance between the interconnected components increases. Accounting for the uncertainty in the interdepndencies results in larger differences in the mean functionality of network components as the physical interdependency strength increases.