Dynamics of infectious diseases and pulse vaccination:: Teasing apart the embedded resonance effects
Dynamics of infectious diseases and pulse vaccination:: Teasing apart the embedded resonance effects
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.physd.2006.08.006
复制
发表时间：
2006-11-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Rohani, Pejman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Choisy, Marc;Guegan, Jean-Francois;Rohani, Pejman
动力系统理论预测，固有的振荡系统经历周期性的强迫将表现出共振现象，其特征是定性的动力学后果，从放大小的外部扰动。在本文中，我们使用大量的数值模拟来证明脉冲疫苗接种策略的周期性可以使疾病动力学产生共振。我们一步一步地进行，以梳理除了（i）宿主-病原体系统的内在非线性，（ii）传播的季节性变化和（iii）脉冲接种疫苗引起的额外强迫的动力学后果。我们的文件，与脉冲疫苗接种相关的共振现象可以有定量的流行病学的影响，并产生反常的影响，如意外增加的感染者的数量作为疫苗接种频率的增加。我们的研究结果强调了在设计脉冲疫苗接种策略时仔细考虑疾病的动态特性的重要性。(c)2006 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Dynamical systems theory predicts that inherently oscillatory systems undergoing periodic forcings will exhibit resonance phenomena, which are characterized by qualitative dynamical consequences resulting from the amplification of small external perturbations. In this paper we use extensive numerical simulations to demonstrate that the periodic nature of pulse vaccination strategies can make disease dynamics resonate. We proceed step by step in order to tease apart the dynamical consequences of (i) the intrinsic nonlinearity of the host-pathogen system, (ii) the seasonal variation in transmission and (iii) the additional forcing caused by vaccinating in pulses. We document that the resonance phenomenon associated with pulse vaccination can have quantitative epidemiological implications and produce perverse effects such as an unexpected increase in the number of infectives as the vaccination frequency increases. Our findings emphasize the importance of carefully taking into account the dynamical properties of the disease when designing a pulse vaccination strategy. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.