Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.
Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.
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发展全球气候异常表明2006 - 2007年的潜在疾病风险。
DOI：
10.1186/1476-072x-5-60
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发表时间：
2006-12-28
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Linthicum, Kenneth J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anyamba, Assaf;Chretien, Jean-Paul;Small, Jennifer;Tucker, Compton J;Linthicum, Kenneth J
与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)相关的气候异常已被证明对传染病暴发产生影响。美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA/CPC)气候预测中心最近发布了一份计划外的厄尔尼诺现象咨询报告，指出赤道东太平洋的海面温度高于正常水平，可能会对延伸到北半球的全球热带降水模式产生显著影响，特别是在北美。建立ENSO驱动的气候异常与传染病之间联系的证据，特别是那些由昆虫传播的疾病，可以使我们能够提供更好的流行病或流行性疾病的长期预报。我们使用卫星生成的数据描述了气候异常的发展，这些异常表明潜在的疾病风险。在2006年7月至10月期间，赤道东太平洋的海面温度(SST)显著升高，表明厄尔尼诺现象的典型发展。这些条件的持续将导致全球范围气候异常的极端，就像过去在类似条件下观察到的那样。印度尼西亚、马来西亚和菲律宾大部分地区都观测到了正向向外长波辐射(OLR)异常，这表明了严重的干旱条件，这些地区通常是第一批经历与ENSO相关的影响的地区。可以预计，这种干旱将平均持续到2006年剩余时间，一直持续到2007年初。2006年11月至2007年1月期间的气候预报表明，赤道太平洋群岛中部和东部、朝鲜半岛、美国墨西哥湾沿岸和佛罗里达、南美洲北部和赤道东非的降雨量很有可能超过正常水平。考虑到目前的观察和气候预测信息，有迹象表明以下地区的疾病暴发风险增加：印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国和东南亚大部分岛屿的登革热传播增加和呼吸道疾病增加；秘鲁、厄瓜多尔、委内瑞拉和哥伦比亚沿海的疟疾风险增加；孟加拉国和印度沿海的霍乱风险增加；东非裂谷热暴发和疟疾加剧的风险增加；美国西南部汉坦病毒肺综合征和鼠疫的风险增加；加利福尼亚州南部西尼罗河病毒传播增加；以及巴西东北部登革热和呼吸道疾病增加。目前厄尔尼诺现象的发展对全球公共卫生具有重大影响。极端气候事件将会发生，一些地区的降雨量和洪水超过正常水平，其他地区的干旱时期延长。预测疾病对于及时和有效地规划业务控制计划至关重要。在这篇文章中，我们描述了全球气候异常的发展，这些异常表明了潜在的疾病风险，这将为决策者提供额外的工具，以对疾病预防和缓解战略的实施做出合理判断。
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.