Identifying Age Cohorts Responsible for Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus Transmission among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania
Identifying Age Cohorts Responsible for Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus Transmission among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania
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DOI：
10.3390/v12020186
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发表时间：
2020-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Bjornstad, O. N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Herzog, C. M.;de Glanville, W. A.;Bjornstad, O. N.
小反刍兽疫病毒（PPRV）是一种在全球绵羊和山羊群体中引起高发病率和死亡率的传染病。为了更好地控制这种疾病并为根除策略提供信息，需要更好地了解PPRV传播风险如何随年龄而变化。我们的研究使用分段催化模型来估计绵羊，山羊和牛的年龄特异性感染力（FOI，易感宿主的人均感染率），来自2016年在坦桑尼亚收集的横断面血清调查数据集。绵羊、山羊和牛的表观血清阳性率随年龄增长而增加，分别为53.6%、46.8%和11.6%（真实血清阳性率：52.7%、52.8%和39.2%）。在所有年龄段，牧区动物的血清阳性率显著高于农牧动物，牧区绵羊和山羊的血清阳性率分别接近70%和80%，表明牧区流行。最佳拟合的分段催化模型合并了年龄组：绵羊两个，山羊三个，牛四个。这些年龄异质性的信号很弱，除了一个显着的FOI峰值之间的2.5-3.5岁的田园牛。这项研究中发现的微妙的年龄特异性异质性表明，针对控制努力的年龄可能不像针对其他风险因素，如生产系统类型有效。进一步的研究应该调查特定的畜牧业实践如何影响PPRV传播。
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV transmission risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence increased with age, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting pastoral endemicity. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models merged age groups: two for sheep, three for goats, and four for cattle. The signal of these age heterogeneities were weak, except for a significant FOI peak among 2.5-3.5-year-old pastoral cattle. The subtle age-specific heterogeneities identified in this study suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as production system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission.