Diverging Life Expectancies and Voting Patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election
Diverging Life Expectancies and Voting Patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2017.303945
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Bor, Jacob
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bor, Jacob
目标。评估2016年美国总统大选的投票模式是否与县预期寿命的长期趋势相关。我检查了2008年和2016年总统选举的县级投票数据，并评估了唐纳德·特朗普在2016年投票中的份额，2008年至2016年共和党投票份额的变化，以及民主党和共和党投票绝对数量的变化。1980年和2014年出生时预期寿命的县级估计值来自健康计量与评估研究所。从1980年到2014年，县预期寿命的变化与特朗普的选票份额呈强烈负相关，特朗普在存活率提高的县的支持率越低。在预期寿命停滞或下降的县，2008年至2016年间，共和党的投票份额增加了10个百分点。在2016年的总统大选中，那些没有获得更广泛预期寿命增长的县的居民放弃了民主党。自上台以来，特朗普政府提议削减穷人的医疗保险、社会项目、健康研究以及环境和工人保护方面的开支，这些都是影响人口健康的关键因素。如果不对人口健康进行大量公共投资，健康差距可能会继续扩大。
Objectives. To assess whether voting patterns in the 2016 US presidential election were correlated with long-run trends in county life expectancy.Methods. I examined county-level voting data from the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections and assessed Donald Trump's share of the 2016 vote, change in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016, and changes in absolute numbers of Democratic and Republican votes. County-level estimates of life expectancy at birth were obtained for 1980 and 2014 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.Results. Changes in county life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 were strongly negatively associated with Trump's vote share, with less support for Trump in counties experiencing greater survival gains. Counties in which life expectancy stagnated or declined saw a 10-percentage-point increase in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016.Conclusions. Residents of counties left out from broader life expectancy gains abandoned the Democratic Party in the 2016 presidential election. Since coming to power, the Trump administration has proposed cuts to health insurance for the poor, social programs, health research, and environmental and worker protections, which are key determinants of population health. Health gaps likely will continue to widen without significant public investment in population health.