Local and cross‐seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus
Local and cross‐seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus
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气候和土地利用与帝王蝶 Danaus plexippus 丰富度的局部和跨季节关联
DOI：
10.1111/ecog.02719
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Elise F. Zipkin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sarah P. Saunders;L. Ries;K. Oberhauser;W. Thogmartin;Elise F. Zipkin
量化气候和土地利用因素如何在区域尺度上驱动种群动态是复杂的，因为它取决于当地种群之间的时空同步程度，以及种群过程在整个物种年周期中的整合。我们模拟了每周，特定网站的夏季丰富（1994-2013年）的帝王蝶Danaus plexippus在整个美国伊利诺伊州的网站，以评估相对关联的君主丰富的气候和土地利用变量在冬季，春季和夏季阶段的年度周期。我们开发了负二项回归模型，以估计在伊利诺伊州的招聘作为当地气候，特定地点的作物覆盖，县级除草剂（草甘膦）的应用功能的君主丰度。我们还纳入了跨季节的协变量，包括墨西哥越冬帝王蝶的年度丰度和美国德克萨斯州春季迁徙和繁殖期间的气候条件。我们提供了第一个经验证据，县级草甘膦应用和当地丰富的成年帝王蝶之间的负相关，特别是在集中农业地区。然而，这种关联仅在采用抗除草剂作物的最初几年（1994-2003年）才明显。我们还发现，在得克萨斯州的潮湿，在较小程度上，凉爽的春天与较高的夏季丰度在伊利诺伊州，因为是相对凉爽的地方在伊利诺伊州的夏季气温。从2004年到2013年，每个地点的帝王蝶丰度平均比前十年少一只，这表明最近伊利诺伊州夏季繁殖地的帝王蝶丰度有所下降。我们的研究结果表明，季节性气候和土地利用与成年君主丰度的趋势，我们的方法强调了考虑高分辨率的时间波动的人口水平对环境条件的反应时，推断迁徙物种的动态的价值。
Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site-specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site-specific crop cover, and county-level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross-seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county-level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide-resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site-specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine-resolution temporal fluctuations in population-level responses to environmental conditions when inferring the dynamics of migratory species.
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2015.2846
发表时间：
2016-01
期刊：
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Clark S. Rushing;T. Ryder;P. Marra
通讯作者：
Clark S. Rushing;T. Ryder;P. Marra