Quantification of climate-induced interannual variability in residential U.S. electricity demand
Quantification of climate-induced interannual variability in residential U.S. electricity demand
复制标题
气候引起的美国住宅电力需求年际变化的量化
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2021.121273
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
J. DeCarolis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Eshraghi;A. Queiroz;A. Sankarasubramanian;J. DeCarolis
我们评估了48个美国居民用电需求的敏感性。季节性气候变化和与州级家庭用电需求有关的结构变化对各州的影响。其主要目标是量化的影响，季节性气候变化对住宅电力需求的变化在冬季和夏季。我们在线性回归模型中使用2005年至2017年的州一级月度人口，能源和气候数据，发现年际气候变化解释了季节性家庭电力需求变化的重要部分：在42个州，夏季和冬季的需求变化分别超过70%和50%，由气候驱动。我们的工作表明，需要新的数据集来量化冬季和夏季电力需求中无法解释的差异。这项研究的结果对于制定季节性电力需求预测至关重要，这可以帮助电力系统的运营和管理，特别是在未来终端用户需求的电气化程度更高的情况下。
We assess the sensitivity of residential electricity demand in 48 U S. states to seasonal climate variations and structural changes pertaining to state-level household electricity demand. The main objective is to quantify the effects of seasonal climate variability on residential electricity demand variability during the winter and summer seasons. We use state-level monthly demographic, energy, and climate data from 2005 to 2017 in a linear regression model and find that interannual climate variability explains a significant share of seasonal household electricity demand variation: in 42 states, more than 70% and 50% of demand variability in summer and winter, respectively, is driven by climate. Our work suggests the need for new datasets to quantify unexplained variance in the winter and summer electricity demand. Findings from this study are critical to developing seasonal electricity demand forecasts, which can aid power system operation and management, particularly in a future with greater electrification of end-use demands.