The National Children's Study (NCS): establishment and protection of the inferential base.
The National Children's Study (NCS): establishment and protection of the inferential base.
复制标题
国家儿童研究（NCS）：推理基础的建立和保护。
DOI：
10.1002/sim.3635
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Ellenberg,JonasH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ellenberg,JonasH
国家儿童研究（NCS）是一项独特的环境与健康研究，将跟踪10万名妇女，从怀孕前或怀孕初期开始，然后跟踪她们的子女，直到21岁。NCS队列将是一个全国性的多阶段概率样本，使用与可能影响样本选择的因素（例如获得医疗保健）无关的美国人口普查局地理抽样框架。我提出了使用国家概率样本作为NCS设计基础的案例，认为原始队列的选择应该尽可能不受选择偏差的影响。使用选择或非概率样本方法的危险，可以通过一个例子来证明，它在概述患有发热性癫痫发作的儿童的临床管理中使用，这是一种罕见的疾病，几十年来一直是错误的。此外，我强调了NCS方法的重要性，以避免在初始队列选择后可能出现的选择偏差。在这项重大任务中，选择和维持一个未被选择的队列是推断有效性的重要因素。版权所有©2010 John Wiley & Sons， Ltd
The National Children's Study (NCS) is a unique study of environment and health that will follow a cohort of 100 000 women from prior to or early in pregnancy and then their children until 21 years of age. The NCS cohort will be a national multi‐stage probability sample, using a U.S. Census Bureau geographic sampling frame unrelated to factors that might influence selection into the sample (e.g. access to health care). I present the case for the use of a national probability sample as the design base for the NCS, arguing that selection of the original cohort should be as free from selection bias as possible. The dangers of using a selected or nonprobability sample approach are demonstrated by an example of its use in outlining the clinical management of children with febrile seizures, an infrequent disorder, which was so wrong for decades. In addition, I stress the importance of and the NCS approach to avoiding selection bias that might occur after the initial selection of the cohort. The selection of and maintenance of an unselected cohort is an important element for the validity of inferences in this major undertaking. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.