Quasi-deterministic responses of marine species to climate change
Quasi-deterministic responses of marine species to climate change
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DOI：
10.3354/cr01398
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Kirby, Richard R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beaugrand, Gregory;Kirby, Richard R.
一个物种对其整个温度范围内的温度变化做出反应的方式被认为是不一致的，这可能会造成对气候变化影响的混淆。困惑可能会引起人们对温度对物种影响的怀疑，这可能会在科学家、生态系统管理者和普通公众之间引发争议。所有这些都是因为经验性研究通常在地方尺度上进行，那里对温度的反应可能非常不同，而且人口动态通常看起来可能是随机的。在地方尺度上，丰度和温度之间的长期关系可以描述三种情况之一：(1)零，(2)负的，或(3)正的关系。在这里，通过证明不同的、区域性的生物对温度的反应可以从生态学理论中得到预期，我们证明了对温度的三种不同的反应取决于物种的热生态位、热局部状况及其变化以及随机或不受控制的过程的大小之间的相互作用。使用混合了非线性、确定性和随机过程的模型，我们认为物种对气候变化的反应在某些空间尺度上是准确定性的，使它们能够被理论化和预测，从而消除未来的争议。
Perceived inconsistencies in the way a species may respond to temperature change across its thermal range can create confusion about the effects of climate change. Confusion can create doubt about the effects of temperature on a species, which can lead to controversy among scientists, ecosystem managers, and the general public. All this arises because empirical studies often take place at local scales, where responses to temperature can be quite different and where population dynamics can often appear to be random. At local scales, the long-term relationship between abundance and temperature can describe one of 3 scenarios: (1) a nil, (2) a negative, or (3) a positive relationship. Here, by showing that differential, regional biological responses to temperature are to be expected from ecological theory, we demonstrate that the 3 different responses to temperature depend upon the interaction between a species' thermal niche, the thermal local regime and its changes, and the magnitude of stochastic or uncontrolled processes. Using models mixing nonlinear, deterministic, and stochastic processes, we suggest that species' responses to climate change are quasi-deterministic at some spatial scales, enabling them to be theorised and anticipated, thereby removing future controversy.