Climate Change and Waterborne Disease Risk in the Great Lakes Region of the US
Climate Change and Waterborne Disease Risk in the Great Lakes Region of the US
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.026
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发表时间：
2008-11-01
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
McLellan, Sandra L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Patz, Jonathan A.;Vavrus, Stephen J.;McLellan, Sandra L.
水文循环的极端现象将伴随着全球变暖，导致降水强度增加，特别是在中高纬度地区。在20世纪，大风暴的频率已经增加，这段时间内总降水量的增加主要来自于大量的强风暴。预计五大湖地区将经历这些极端降水事件的增加。对于威斯康星州南部，使用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告中的一套七个全球气候模型模拟了10个最潮湿天的降水率。对于每个等级，这些非常重的事件的降水率在未来增加。总的来说，这些模型预测，威斯康星州南部的极端降水事件将增加10%至40%，从而导致更大的洪水可能性，以及通常伴随着高排放到密歇根湖的水传播疾病。（2.5英寸）的日降水量作为启动联合下水道溢流进入密歇根湖的阈值，预计到本世纪末，这些事件的发生率将增加50%至120%。未来热力和水文变化的结合可能会影响休闲海滩的可用性。芝加哥海滩的关闭取决于最近降水量（过去24小时内）、湖泊温度和湖泊水位。预计未来强降雨量的增加、湖水沃茨和湖平面下降都将导致海滩污染。五大湖是4 000多万人的饮用水源。正在进行的研究和过去的事件说明了降雨事件和进入五大湖的污染物数量之间的密切联系。全球变暖预测下的极端降水可能会淹没合并的下水道系统，并导致溢出事件，可能威胁到人类健康和娱乐在该地区。
Extremes of the hydrologic cycle will accompany global warming, causing precipitation intensity to increase, particularly in middle and high latitudes. During the twentieth century, the frequency of major storms has already increased, and the total precipitation increase over this time period has primarily come from the greater number of heavy events. The Great Lakes region is projected to experience a rise these extreme precipitation events.For southern Wisconsin, the precipitation rate of the 10 wettest days was Simulated using a suite of seven global climate models from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. For each ranking, the precipitation rate of these very heavy events increases in the future. Overall, the models project that extreme precipitation events will become 10% to 40% stronger in southern Wisconsin, resulting in greater potential for flooding, and for the waterborne diseases that often accompany high discharge into Lake Michigan.Using 6.4 cm (2.5 in) of daily precipitation as the threshold for initiating combined sewer overflow into Lake Michigan, the frequency of these events is expected to rise by 50% to 120% by the end of this century. The combination of future thermal and hydrologic changes may affect the usability of recreational beaches. Chicago beach closures are dependent on the magnitude of recent precipitation (within the past 24 hours), lake temperature, and lake stage. Projected increases in heavy rainfall, warmer lake waters, and lowered lake levels would all be expected to contribute to beach contamination in the future.The Great Lakes serve as a drinking water source for more than 40 million people. Ongoing studies and past events illustrate a strong connection between rain events and the amount of pollutants entering the Great Lakes. Extreme precipitation under global warming projections may overwhelm the combined sewer systems and lead to overflow events that can threaten both human health and recreation in the region.