On a Method of Estimating Birth and Death Rates and the Extent of Registration (Excerpt)
On a Method of Estimating Birth and Death Rates and the Extent of Registration (Excerpt)
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论出生率、死亡率的推算方法及登记范围（摘录）
DOI：
10.1198/0003130042935
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发表时间：
1949
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
W. Deming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Sekar;W. Deming
本文提出了一种数学理论，当将登记员的出生和死亡名单与挨家挨户调查获得的名单进行比较时，可以估计出一个地区在特定时期内发生的事件总数。它还给出了注册的范围。考虑到一个事件在一个列表上被遗漏的概率可能并不独立于它在另一个列表上被遗漏的概率。这一理论适用于1947年在加尔各答附近的Singur保健中心进行的一次调查，调查时间分别为1945年和1946年。研究发现，将单个群体的总数相加得出的估计值通常要大于将总体人口的估计值一次性计算出来的估计值。根据该理论，这一观察证实了正相关性，并表明越大的数字越接近事实。据估计，Singur保健中心每年的出生和死亡人数（总人口64000人）有1-3%的标准误差。注册率估计在40-70%之间，标准误差约为3%。将人口细分为同质组的三种不同方法获得了较高的死亡人数估计值。对组成中心的4个政治分组分别按性别和性别和年龄组分别编制了计算。在每种情况下，对每个亚种群的单独估计数都加以合并，以获得对该中心整体人口死亡人数的3个估计数。使用第三种方法估计的死亡人数最多。这表明，对性别和年龄组的细分最小化了两种数据收集系统中遗漏的事件的相关性。（FRE SPA摘要）
A mathematical theory is presented which when applied to a comparison of the registrars lists of births and deaths with a list obtained in a house-to-house canvass gives an estimate of the total number of events over an area in a specified period. It also gives the extent of registration. Allowance is made for the fact that the chance of an event being missed on 1 list may not be independent of its chance of being missed on the other list. The theory is applied to an enquiry that was conducted in 1947 over an area known as the Singur Health Center near Calcutta covering the years 1945 and 1946 separately. It is found that the estimated total number of events for the area is usually greater when the estimate is built up by summing the totals for individual groups than when it is computed at once for the aggregated population. This observation according to the theory confirms positive dependence and indicates that the greater figure is closer to the truth. The annual number of births and deaths in the Singur Health Center (total population 64000) is estimated subject to a standard error of from 1-3%. The registration is estimated to vary from about 40-70% with a standard error of about 3%. Higher estimates of the number of deaths were obtained under 3 different approaches to subdividing the population into homogeneous groups. Separate calculations were prepared for each of the 4 political subdivisions comprising the Center for each sex separately and for sex and age groups. In each case the separate estimates obtained for the subpopulations were combined to obtain 3 estimates of the number of deaths for the population of the Center as a whole. The largest estimated number of deaths was obtained using the 3rd approach. This suggests that the subdivision into sex and age groups minimized the correlation of events missed in the 2 data collection systems. (summaries in FRE SPA)