Effects of climate change on trait-based dynamics of a top predator in freshwater ecosystems.
Effects of climate change on trait-based dynamics of a top predator in freshwater ecosystems.
复制标题
气候变化对淡水生态系统中顶级捕食者基于特征的动态的影响。
DOI：
10.1086/674610
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Vindenes Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vindenes Y
预测的普遍反应，外温动物气候变暖，包括增加最大人口增长率和身体大小的变化，通过温度-大小规则。然而，这些预测反应的机制尚不清楚。许多研究集中在影响个体生长的生理过程的近似机制。人们也可以考虑最终的机制，包括适应性的解释，通过评估温度对不同的生命率在整个生命史的影响，并使用人口动态模型中的信息。在这里，我们结合联合收割机长期数据的顶级捕食者在淡水生态系统（派克;狗鱼）的随机积分投影模型，分析并发的影响，温度对生命率，身体大小和人口动态。正如预测的那样，变暖对种群增长率（适合度）的净影响是积极的，但这一速度的热敏感性是高度大小和生命率依赖。这些结果对温度变化的增加不敏感。体细胞生长遵循温度-大小规则，我们的研究结果支持这种反应的适应性解释。种群的稳定长度结构随着气候变暖而变化，中型个体的比例增加，但小型和大型个体的比例减少。这项研究强调了人口统计学方法如何有助于揭示人口对变暖反应的复杂潜在机制。
Predicted universal responses of ectotherms to climate warming include increased maximum population growth rate and changes in body size through the temperature-size rule. However, the mechanisms that would underlie these predicted responses are not clear. Many studies have focused on proximate mechanisms of physiological processes affecting individual growth. One can also consider ultimate mechanisms involving adaptive explanations by evaluating temperature effects on different vital rates across the life history and using the information in a population dynamical model. Here, we combine long-term data for a top predator in freshwater ecosystems (pike;Esox lucius) with a stochastic integral projection model to analyze concurrent effects of temperature on vital rates, body size, and population dynamics. As predicted, the net effect of warming on population growth rate (fitness) is positive, but the thermal sensitivity of this rate is highly size- and vital rate–dependent. These results are not sensitive to increasing variability in temperature. Somatic growth follows the temperature-size rule, and our results support an adaptive explanation for this response. The stable length structure of the population shifts with warming toward an increased proportion of medium-sized but a reduced proportion of small and large individuals. This study highlights how demographic approaches can help reveal complex underlying mechanisms for population responses to warming.