Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy
Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy
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DOI：
10.3389/fmicb.2015.00314
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发表时间：
2015-04-14
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Sanchez-Vizcaino, Jose M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Martinez-Lopez, Beatriz;Perez, Andres M.;Sanchez-Vizcaino, Jose M.
本研究采用贝叶斯多变量logistic回归混合模型，评估了1993年开始根除计划后，假设的风险因素与撒丁岛（意大利）非洲猪瘟病毒（ASFV）分布之间的关系。结果表明，在撒丁岛发生ASFV的概率与该地区发现的特定社会文化，生产和经济因素有关，特别是大量的限制（即，封闭式农场（大多数是后院）、公路密度高、平均海拔高、开放式育肥农场数量多以及每个公社养猪数量多。相反，大比例的开放式农场，至少有一个普查和大比例的开放式农场每个社区，被认为是ASFV的保护因素。结果表明，基本的预防和控制策略，如每年普查或登记的猪每个农场和更好地控制公共土地，猪通常提出，与推广和沟通的努力与猪生产者应有助于在岛上的ASF根除计划的成功。本文介绍的方法和结果将为撒丁岛和所有具有类似管理和流行病学条件的地区更好地控制和根除ASF的决策提供信息。
This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions.