Decision Tree for Postflooding Roadway Operations
Decision Tree for Postflooding Roadway Operations
复制标题
洪水后道路运营的决策树
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Qiao;R. Medina;L. Mccarthy;R. Mallick;J. Daniel
当路面被水淹没时，交通运输机构面临着让道路开放或关闭交通的决定。一方面，如果道路对一个地区有重要的经济用途，政府机构可能希望保持道路畅通，并优先考虑互联互通。另一方面，机构可能会选择关闭道路，以防止额外的结构损坏（这可能会产生大量的维修费用），因为路基含水量高（甚至饱和）。无损检测（NDT）工具，如落重偏转仪（FWD），可以通过促进对路面结构状况的更可靠评估来帮助决策者。可靠的决策应该考虑到过程中固有的不确定性，包括洪水后路面的结构状态、FWD测试的可靠性和成本的可变性。本文提出了一种利用贝叶斯决策树方法进行洪水后公路应急作业的方法。通过蒙特卡罗模拟解决了洪水后路面结构状态、无损检测和成本的不确定性。北达科他州一段被水淹没的路段的案例研究证明了这种方法：明确考虑了道路关闭造成的用户延迟成本。决策树分析的结果提供了客观的建议，建议在水浸后开放或关闭道路，以及在水退后是否应对被水浸道路进行测试。
When a pavement is flooded, transportation agencies are faced with the decision to leave the road open or close it to traffic. On the one hand, agencies may want to keep the road open and prioritize connectivity if the road serves a critical economic purpose for a region. On the other hand, agencies may choose to close the road to prevent additional structural damage (which may incur significant repair costs) because of high water content in (or even saturation of) the subgrade. Nondestructive testing (NDT) tools such as the falling weight deflectometer (FWD) can be applied to assist decision makers by facilitating a more reliable evaluation of the structural condition of the pavement. Reliable decision making ought to incorporate inherent uncertainties in the process, including the structural state of the pavement after flooding, as well as the reliability of FWD testing and variability in costs. This paper presents a method that uses a Bayesian decision tree approach for highway emergency operations after flooding. Uncertainties in the structural state of the pavement after flooding, NDT, and costs are addressed with Monte Carlo simulations. A case study of a flooded roadway section in North Dakota demonstrated this approach: user delay costs caused by closure of the roadway were explicitly considered. The results of the decision tree analysis provide objective recommendations about opening or closing a road after flooding, as well as whether FWD testing of the flooded road should be conducted once the water recedes.