Household-based E-commerce demand modeling for an agent-based urban transportation simulation platform
Household-based E-commerce demand modeling for an agent-based urban transportation simulation platform
复制标题
基于家庭的电子商务需求建模，基于智能体的城市交通仿真平台
DOI：
10.1080/03081060.2022.2084397
复制
发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Takanori Sakai;Yusuke Hara;Ravi Seshadri;A. Alho;Md Sami Hasnine;Peiyu Jing;ZhiYuan Chua;M. Ben-Akiva
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takanori Sakai;Yusuke Hara;Ravi Seshadri;A. Alho;Md Sami Hasnine;Peiyu Jing;ZhiYuan Chua;M. Ben-Akiva
摘要：过去二十年，电子商务市场发展迅速。预测电子商务需求并评估相关政策和解决方案的需求正在不断增加。然而，现有的电子商务需求模拟模型仍然有限，并且没有考虑购物者面临的配送选项及其属性对电子商务需求多个维度的影响。我们提出了一个新颖的框架，涉及分解行为模型，共同预测电子商务支出、每笔交易的购买金额、交付模式和选项选择。所提出的框架可以模拟电子商务需求的变化，并用于评估一系列政策和解决方案的影响。我们根据各种相关信息来源指定模型参数，将模型集成到城市货运模拟器中，并对典型的北美城市进行示范模拟。分析结果突出了所提出的建模框架的能力和适用性。
ABSTRACT The e-commerce market has grown rapidly in the past two decades. The need for predicting e-commerce demand and evaluating relevant policies and solutions is increasing. However, the existing simulation models for e-commerce demand are still limited and do not consider the impacts of delivery options and their attributes that shoppers face on multiple dimensions of e-commerce demand. We propose a novel framework involving disaggregate behavioral models that jointly predict e-commerce expenditure, purchase amount per transaction, delivery mode, and option choices. The proposed framework can simulate the changes in e-commerce demand and be used to evaluate the impacts of a range of policies and solutions. We specify the model parameters based on various sources of relevant information, integrate the model into an urban freight simulator, and conduct a demonstrative simulation for a prototypical North American city. The results of the analysis highlight the capability and applicability of the proposed modeling framework.