New Renewable Electricity Capacity under Uncertainty: The Potential in Norway
New Renewable Electricity Capacity under Uncertainty: The Potential in Norway
复制标题
不确定性下的新可再生电力容量：挪威的潜力
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Ringen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stein;G. Ringen
影响项目价值的不确定性使投资者在建立新的能力方面犹豫不决，除非盈利能力很大。因此，在分析一个区域新的可再生能源发电能力的潜力时，有必要适当把握不确定性的影响和投资者的决策行为。重要的随机因素通常包括批发电价和证书价格。我们计算这些因素总和的触发水平，并将其与当前的长期合同价格进行比较，以估计新的可再生能源发电能力的潜力。我们考虑了挪威小水电和风能的成本和技术潜力，预先通知，特许权申请和赠款的数量以及补贴政府机构的容量目标。瑞典和挪威的电力证书政策目标是到2016年每年新增41 TWh的可再生能源，我们估计挪威将建设12 TWh的风力发电和6.2 TWh的水电。由于等待的选择价值，这种能力的大部分将在2010年之后到来
Uncertainty affecting project values makes investors hesitate to build new capacity unless profitability is significant. When analysing the potential for new renewable capacity in a region, it is therefore necessary to properly capture both uncertainty effects and decision-making behaviour of investors. Important stochastic factors typically include wholesale electricity prices and certificate prices. We calculate trigger levels for the sum of these factors, and compare these with the current long-term contract prices to estimate the potential for new renewable electricity capacity. We take into account the cost and technical potential of small hydro and wind in Norway, the number of prenotifications, concession applications and grants, and the capacity targets of subsidising governmental bodies. With an electricity certificate policy target of 41 TWh per year new renewable for Sweden and Norway combined until 2016, we estimate that 12 TWh windpower and 6.2 TWh hydropower will be built in Norway. Due to the option value of waiting, most of this capacity will come after 2010