Modeling the effects of realistic land cover changes on land surface temperatures over China
Modeling the effects of realistic land cover changes on land surface temperatures over China
复制标题
模拟现实土地覆盖变化对中国地表温度的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-022-06635-0
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Zhang Qian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Xing;Chen Haishan;Hua Wenjian;Ma Hedi;Li Xiao;Sun Shanlei;Lu Yiwen;Pang Xueqi;Zhang Xuanwen;Zhang Qian
近几十年来，中国经历了剧烈的土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）。利用区域气候模式（RegCM），基于全球陆面卫星（GLASS-GLC）数据的年动态LUCC，模拟并探讨了1984-2013年中国现实LUCC对地表温度的可能影响及其机制。我们比较了两组集合实验，一组是固定LUCC情景（固定在1984年），另一组是动态LUCC情景（从1984年到2013年的年度转换）。结果表明，近几十年来，中国土地利用变化的主要特征是南方地区的退耕还林（耕地减少）、北方和东北地区的草地向耕地的转化以及西北地区的裸地向草地的转化。这种LUCC主要导致中国南方造林区夏季和秋季的日最高地表温度（Tsmax）显著降低约-0.3至-0.6 °C，其次是中度降低日平均地表温度（Ts）的（~ − 0.2 °C），而对地表日最低温度（Tsmin）的影响较弱（± 0.1 °C）且不显著。在冬季和春季，LUCC对所有温度的影响不太明显。进一步的研究表明，Tsmax的冷却是由LUCC的直接影响（超过90%），特别是在中国南方的退耕还林与空气动力学阻力的减少占主导地位。此外，季节性差异和不确定性的LUCC引起的冷却的Tsmax可能是由于相结合的相对稳定的LUCC的直接影响和不确定的模型内部变异。总的来说，我们的研究强调了现实和短暂的LUCC情景的影响，这可以为更好地评估和理解气候变化提供有见地的科学线索。
In recent decades, China has experienced intense land use and cover change (LUCC). In this study, we modeled and explored the possible effects and mechanisms of realistic LUCCs on surface temperatures in China during 1984–2013 using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) based on the annual dynamic LUCCs derived from Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS-GLC) data. We compared two sets of ensemble experiments, one with a fixed LUCC scenario (fixed at 1984) and the other with a dynamic LUCC scenario (annual conversions from 1984 to 2013). The results showed that LUCCs in recent decades have been characterized by reforestation (accompanied by a reduction in cropland) in southern China, grassland-to-cropland conversions in North and Northeast China and bare land-to-grassland conversions in northwestern China. Such LUCCs led primarily to significant cooling of the daily maximum surface temperature (Tsmax) by approximately − 0.3 to − 0.6 °C in summer and autumn over the reforestation areas of southern China, followed by moderate cooling (~ − 0.2 °C) of the daily mean surface temperature (Ts), while the effect on the daily minimum surface temperature (Tsmin) was weak (within ± 0.1 °C) and nonsignificant. During winter and spring, the impacts of LUCC on all temperatures were less pronounced. Further investigation revealed that the cooling ofTsmaxwas dominated by the direct effects of LUCC (over 90%), particularly the reduction in aerodynamic resistance associated with the cropland-to-forest conversions in southern China. Additionally, seasonal differences and uncertainties in the LUCC-induced cooling ofTsmaxwere likely due to a combination of the relatively stable direct effect of LUCC and the uncertain model internal variability. Overall, our study highlights the effects of realistic and transient LUCC scenarios, which could provide insightful scientific clues to better assess and understand climate change.