Uncertainty Evaluation of a Groundwater Conceptual Model by Using a Multimodel Averaging Method
Uncertainty Evaluation of a Groundwater Conceptual Model by Using a Multimodel Averaging Method
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DOI：
10.1080/10807039.2014.957945
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发表时间：
2015-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
X. Zeng;Dong Wang;Jichun Wu;Xiaobin Zhu;Lachun Wang;X. Zou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Zeng;Dong Wang;Jichun Wu;Xiaobin Zhu;Lachun Wang;X. Zou
地下水场是一个复杂的开放系统。地下水模拟和预测往往偏离真实值，这是由于地下水模拟的不确定性。概念模型（模型结构）是地下水模拟不确定性的主要来源之一。在这项研究中，平均欧几里德距离（MED）之间的模型模拟和观察，提出了评估的综合似然值的概念模型在贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）。并通过一个地下水综合模型，将该方法与传统的广义似然不确定性估计（GLUE）BMA方法进行了比较，总结了两种BMA方法的特点。
ABSTRACT A groundwater field is a complex and open system. Groundwater simulation and prediction often deviated from true values, which is attributed to the uncertainty of groundwater modeling. The conceptual model (model struture) is one of the main sources of groundwater modeling uncertianty. In this study, the mean Euclidean distance (MED) between model simulations and observations is proposed to assess the integrated likelihood value of a conceptual model in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Moreover, this proposed BMA method is compared with the traditional generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) BMA method by a synthetical groundwater model, and the characteristics of these two BMA methods are summarized.