Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension.
Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension.
复制标题
DOI：
10.7554/elife.33468
复制
发表时间：
2018-04-03
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Huettig F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nieuwland MS;Politzer-Ahles S;Heyselaar E;Segaert K;Darley E;Kazanina N;Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn S;Bartolozzi F;Kogan V;Ito A;Mézière D;Barr DJ;Rousselet GA;Ferguson HJ;Busch-Moreno S;Fu X;Tuomainen J;Kulakova E;Husband EM;Donaldson DI;Kohút Z;Rueschemeyer SA;Huettig F
人们是否经常预先激活即将到来的单词的意义，甚至是语音形式？音系学预测最受赞誉的证据来自DeLong、Urbach和Kutas在2005年发表的一篇《自然神经科学》出版物，他们观察到，根据人们使用一个单词继续句子片段(完形填空)的概率，大脑电势(N400)对名词和前面的冠词进行了分级调制。在我们跨越9个实验室(N=334)的直接复制研究中，预先注册的复制分析和探索性贝叶斯因子分析成功地复制了名词结果，但关键的是，不复制文章结果。预先登记的单次试验分析也对名词产生了统计上的显着影响，但对冠词没有影响。探索性贝叶斯单次试验分析表明，文章效应可能非零，但很可能比最初报告的要小得多，而且太小，在没有非常大的样本量的情况下无法观察。我们的结果并不支持这样的观点，即读者通常会预先激活可预测单词的音位形式。
Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.