Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles
Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles
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将循环经济战略与低碳场景相结合：锂在电动汽车中的应用
DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.9b02872
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Giurco Damien
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Watari Takuma;Nansai Keisuke;Nakajima Kenichi;McLellan Benjamin C.;Dominish Elsa;Giurco Damien
运输部门的电气化将支持其脱碳，但会显著改变材料要求。这就需要一种综合建模方法，将低碳情景下的金属供需动态内在化，以支持关于气候变化和可持续物质循环的巴黎协定。在这里，我们开发了一个步骤，通过统一的库存流量动态模型，低碳情景，使用线性规划的能源-材料情景的综合模拟。该建模框架结合了来自矿山和报废（EoL）回收的锂供应，预计将在全球范围内用于电动汽车。结果表明，在目前的回收率（<1%）的情况下，供应限制可能从2030年左右变得明显，这将阻碍电池电动汽车（BEV）的部署，导致2050年车辆运行产生额外的3亿吨二氧化碳排放。另一个重要的发现是，将回收率提高到80%可以大大减轻对BEV引入的限制，而不需要远高于历史扩张速度的天然沉积物的主要供应。虽然从长期角度来看，EoL回收很重要，但由于需求呈指数级增长和电池寿命较长，以EoL为导向的战略对短期/中期（如到2030年）锂供需平衡影响不大。重要的是，这项研究的结果强调了以综合方式应对气候变化和资源循环的必要性。
Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to support the Paris agreement on climate change and sustainable material circulation. Here we develop a step toward the integrated simulation of energy-materials scenarios by unifying a stock-flow dynamics model for low-carbon scenarios using linear programming. The modeling framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines and end-of-life (EoL) recycling for projected use in electric vehicles on a global basis. The results show that supply constraints, which could become apparent from around 2030 in the case of current recycling rates (<1%), would impede the deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), leading to the generation of an additional 300 Mt-CO2of emissions for vehicle operation in 2050. Another important finding is that increasing the recycling rate to 80% could substantially relieve restrictions on the introduction of BEVs without requiring primary supply from natural deposits far beyond historical rates of expansion. While EoL recycling is important from a long-term perspective, an EoL-oriented strategy has little effect on the short/medium-term (such as to 2030) lithium demand-supply balance because of exponential demand growth and long living batteries. Importantly, findings in this study emphasize the necessity of tackling climate change and resource circulation in an integrated manner.