The effect of changes in health sector resources on infant mortality in the short-run and the long-run: A longitudinal econometric analysis
The effect of changes in health sector resources on infant mortality in the short-run and the long-run: A longitudinal econometric analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.03.023
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发表时间：
2009-06-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Canning, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Farahani, Mansour;Subramanian, S. V.;Canning, David
虽然卫生人力资源水平较高的国家通常人口健康状况较好，但卫生人力资源水平的提高导致人口健康状况改善的证据有限。我们使用一个动态回归模型，以获得估计的短期和长期的影响，人均医生的变化，我们的卫生系统资源的措施，对婴儿死亡率。我们使用1960-2000年99个国家的数据集，每5年一次，估计每1000人增加1名医生（大约是目前提供水平的两倍），5年内婴儿死亡率下降15%，长期下降45%，长期增长的一半在15年内实现。我们的结论是，卫生系统资源的长期影响比以前估计的要大得多。然而，我们的研究结果表明，那些推迟采取行动的国家，即到2015年将婴儿和儿童死亡率降低三分之二（相对于1990年）的千年发展目标，即使他们现在迅速增加资源，也可能难以实现这一目标。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
While countries with higher levels of human resources for health typically have better population health, the evidence that increases in the level of human resources for health leads to improvements in population health is limited. We use a dynamic regression model to obtain estimates of both the short-run and long-term effects of changes in physicians per capita, our measure of health system resources, on infant mortality. Using a dataset of 99 countries at 5-year intervals from 1960-2000, we estimate that increasing the number of physicians by one per 1000 population (roughly a doubling of current levels of provision) decreases the infant mortality rate by 15% within 5 years and by 45% in the long-run with half the long-run gain being achieved in 15 years. We conclude that the long-run effects of heath system resources are substantially larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest, however, that countries that have delayed action on the Millennium Development Coal of reducing infant and child mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 (relative to 1990) may have difficulty meeting this goal even if they rapidly increase resources now. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.