The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Microdata Evidence from Japan
The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Microdata Evidence from Japan
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DOI：
10.1111/jmcb.12944
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发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Kikuchi;Yoshiyuki Nakazono
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Kikuchi;Yoshiyuki Nakazono
通过对5万户家庭进行为期4年的调查，本研究考察了家庭如何形成通胀预期。有三个发现。首先，家庭对短期通胀预测的分歧大于长期通胀预测的分歧;此外，家庭收集总体通胀率信息的频率也可以预测分歧。1年期的通胀预测分布很广，而10年期的通胀预测则固定在2%以下。其次，家庭对价格信息的更新是不均匀的。46%的家庭每季度至少收集一次消费者价格指数信息，而其余家庭则不经常或从不获得这一信息。第三，预测修正对食品价格的变化很敏感。我们发现，超过一半的家庭只关注食品价格的变化，并可能形成他们的通货膨胀预期使用食品价格的变化作为整体通货膨胀率波动的信号。许多家庭对全国通货膨胀率漠不关心，这使人们对货币政策通过管理预期的传导机制产生了怀疑。
Using a unique survey of 50,000 households for 4 years, this study examines how households form inflation expectations. There are three findings. First, disagreements on inflation forecasts among households are larger for the shorter-term than those for the longer-term horizon; additionally, disagreements are predicted by how frequently households collect information about overall inflation rates. Inflation forecasts for the 1-year horizon are widely dispersed, while those for the 10-year horizon are anchored below 2%. Second, households heterogeneously update their information sets on prices. 46% of the households collect information about the consumer price index at least once a quarter, while the remaining households less frequently or never obtain this information. Third, forecast revisions are sensitive to a change in food prices. We show that more than half of households are attentive only to a change in food prices and may form their inflation expectations using food price changes as a signal of fluctuations in the overall inflation rates. The existence of numerous households that are inattentive to the nationwide inflation rates casts doubt on the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy through the management of expectations.