Adaptive marine conservation planning in the face of climate change: What can we learn from physiological, ecological and genetic studies?
Adaptive marine conservation planning in the face of climate change: What can we learn from physiological, ecological and genetic studies?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00566
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
G. Rilov;A. D. Mazaris;V. Stelzenmüller;B. Helmuth;M. Wahl;T. Guy‐Haim;N. Mieszkowska;J. Ledoux;S. Katsanevakis
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文献类型：
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作者：
G. Rilov;A. D. Mazaris;V. Stelzenmüller;B. Helmuth;M. Wahl;T. Guy‐Haim;N. Mieszkowska;J. Ledoux;S. Katsanevakis
人类活动造成的气候变化迅速加剧，对海洋生物多样性构成重大威胁，增加了海洋养护面临的挑战。战略保护规划和最近的海洋空间规划是实施和执行海洋保护的最有前途的管理工具。到目前为止，气候变化很少被纳入这些计划，这可能会削弱指定保护区在新环境条件下的有效性。要对当前和未来的气候变化威胁进行可靠的评估，就需要有能力绘制气候驱动的生态演变变化图，并查明脆弱和有抵抗力的人口。在这里，我们探讨了迄今为止在很大程度上未被认识到的价值，从生理，生态和进化的研究，以MSP在持续的气候变化。例如，我们探讨了气候威胁如何不一定遵循纬度梯度，这样风险热点和避难所都发生在镶嵌分布沿着物种范围-模式，可能无法检测到没有知识的生物脆弱性在区域和地方尺度。由于共存物种对相同的环境变化表现出明显不同的脆弱性，因此在可能的情况下，进行生态预测需要测量关键物种的基本生态位（例如，使用耐热性实验）。预测还需要开发工具，以确定社区一级阈值或临界点的可能性（例如，利用接近真实世界的中尺度生态系统），以及评估种群的适应潜力（例如，花园实验（Garden Experiments）这种研究将有助于建立更好的预测模型，预测种群、物种、生态系统及其功能的命运。最终，揭示气候变化影响背后的复杂过程将有助于量化和减少空间规划决策过程中的不确定性，并将有助于开发实用工具，以验证适应性保护战略。
Rapid anthropogenic climate change is a major threat to ocean biodiversity, increasing the challenge for marine conservation. Strategic conservation planning, and more recently marine spatial planning (MSP) are among the most promising management tools to operationalize and enforce marine conservation. As yet, climate change is seldom incorporated into these plans, potentially curtailing the effectiveness of designated conservation areas under novel environmental conditions. Reliable assessment of current and future climate change threats requires the ability to map climate-driven eco-evolutionary changes and the identification of vulnerable and resistant populations. Here we explore the heretofore largely unrecognized value of information gained from physiological, ecological and evolutionary studies to MSP under ongoing climate change. For example, we explore how climate threats do not necessarily follow latitudinal gradients, such that both risk hotspots and refugia occur in mosaic distributions along species ranges - patterns that may be undetectable without knowledge of biological vulnerabilities at regional and local scales. Because co-occurring species can exhibit markedly different vulnerabilities to the same environmental changes, making ecological predictions requires, when possible, measuring the fundamental niches of key species (e.g., with the use of thermotolerance experiments). Forecasting also requires development of tools to identify the likelihood of community-level thresholds or tipping points (e.g., with the use of near-real world mesocosms), and assessment of the potential of populations for adaptation (e.g., with common garden experiments). Such research will facilitate better predictive models for the fate of populations, species, ecosystems and their functions. Ultimately, unfolding the complexity of the processes underlying climate change impacts will facilitate quantifying and reducing uncertainty in spatial planning decision processes and will enable the development of practical tools to validate adaptive conservation strategies.