A solution to the problem of generalisation in educational research: fuzzy prediction
A solution to the problem of generalisation in educational research: fuzzy prediction
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DOI：
10.1080/3054980020030574
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发表时间：
2001-03-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Bassey, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bassey, M
本文通过引入模糊逻辑的概念，证实了一种封装经验研究的教育知识主张，并将其简单地传达给潜在使用者的方法。模糊预测用包含限定词的陈述的不确定性或模糊性取代了科学概括的确定性(“x在y情况下会导致z”)(“x在y情况下可能会导致z”)。这篇论文还试探性地提出，可以通过最佳可信度估计来表示发生的可能性，在缺乏经验证据的情况下，最佳可信度估计是基于研究人员的专业判断(来自文献和经验)。总之，模糊预测只不过是研究人员的相当于政治家的声音片段，因此可能没有什么可信度，但当有研究报告支持时，模糊预测提供了一个强大的和用户友好的总结，可以作为专业行动的指南。模糊预测会招致复制和这一点，通过引导支持该声明或其修正案，为教育理论的大厦作出了贡献。
This paper substantiates a way of encapsulating the claims to educational knowledge of empirical research and communicating them simply to would-be users by drawing on a concept of fuzzy logic. A fuzzy prediction replaces the certainty of scientific generalisation ('x in y circumstances results in z') by the uncertainty, or fuzziness, of statements that contain qualifiers ('x in y circumstances may result in z'). The paper also tentatively suggests that the likelihood of 'z' occurring can be indicated by a best-estimate-of-trustworthiness which, in the absence of empirical evidence, is based on the researchers' professional judgement (arising from the literature and experience).Alone, a fuzzy prediction is no more than the researcher's equivalent of the politician's sound-bite, and as such may have little credence, but when supported by a research account which makes clear the context of the statement and the evidence justifying it, the fuzzy prediction provides a powerful and user-friendly summary which can serve as a guide to professional action.Fuzzy prediction invites replication and this, by leading either to support of the statement or its amendment, contributes to the edifice of educational theory.