Economic losses due to ozone impacts on human health, forest productivity and crop yield across China
Economic losses due to ozone impacts on human health, forest productivity and crop yield across China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2019.104966
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Paoletti, Elena
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Feng, Zhaozhong;De Marco, Alessandra;Paoletti, Elena
中国经济增长显著增加了对流层臭氧（O-3）前体物质的排放，导致区域O-3污染增加。我们分析了来自1400个监测站的数据，并估计了2015年中国人口和植被（作物和森林）对O-3污染的暴露情况。根据世卫组织人类健康保护指标，目前的O-3水平导致0.9%的过早死亡率（每年新增病例59,844例），96%的人口稠密地区出现由O-3引起的过早死亡。对于植被，相对于低于各自AOT40临界水平（CL）的条件，O-3分别使森林树木年生物量增长减少11-13%，水稻和小麦产量减少8%和6%。这些CLs分别超过98%、75%和83%的森林、水稻和小麦面积。利用O-3暴露反应函数，我们评估了O-3引起的水稻（75亿美元）、小麦（111亿美元）和森林生产（522亿美元）损失的成本，以及基于somo35的呼吸系统疾病发病率（6909亿美元）和非意外死亡率（75亿美元），即2015年与O-3相关的总成本占中国国内生产总值的7%。
China's economic growth has significantly increased emissions of tropospheric ozone (O-3) precursors, resulting in increased regional O-3 pollution. We analyzed data from > 1400 monitoring stations and estimated the exposure of population and vegetation (crops and forests) to O-3 pollution across China in 2015. Based on WHO metrics for human health protection, the current O-3 level leads to +0.9% premature mortality (59,844 additional cases a year) with 96% of populated areas showing O-3-induced premature death. For vegetation, O-3 reduces annual forest tree biomass growth by 11-13% and yield of rice and wheat by 8% and 6%, respectively, relative to conditions below the respective AOT40 critical levels (CL). These CLs are exceeded over 98%, 75% and 83% of the areas of forests, rice and wheat, respectively. Using O-3 exposure-response functions, we evaluated the costs of O-3-induced losses in rice (7.5 billion US$), wheat (11.1 billion US$) and forest production (52.2 billion US$) and SOMO35-based morbidity for respiratory diseases (690.9 billion US$) and non-accidental mortality (7.5 billion US$), i.e. a total O-3-related cost representing 7% of the China Gross Domestic Product in 2015.