Impact of Hurricane Dorian in The Bahamas: A View from the Sky

Impact of Hurricane Dorian in The Bahamas: A View from the Sky
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飓风多里安对巴哈马的影响：空中景观

DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bruno Seminario
Bruno Seminario
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Zegarra;J. Schmid;Luis Palomino;Bruno Seminario

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飓风多利安是巴哈马有史以来最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。据估计，它造成的损失和损失达34亿美元（IDB，2019），相当于该国GDP的四分之一。多里安的影响也导致巴哈马经济增长预测的修订。国际货币基金组织将2019年的GDP增长预期下调至0.9%，预计2020年经济将收缩。在这种情况下，本文提出了一种方法来跟踪巴哈马的经济复苏每月。结果表明，由于飓风多利安，巴哈马19个岛屿中大多数的国内生产总值增长率急剧下降。受这一事件影响最大的岛屿的经济活动大幅减少。阿巴科显示，与2019年9月至2018年9月相比，每月经济活动减少了54%，大巴哈马减少了34%。这些估计数是通过比较卫星夜间灯光的空间变化作为飓风多利安前后该国经济活动的指标而得出的。从太空观测到的卫星夜间灯光是公开的，以前曾被用来衡量经济活动。本研究还提供了1992年至2018年按岛屿划分的新年度区域化GDP估计系列，以及2012年1月至2019年9月的月度估计。
Hurricane Dorian has been among the most devastating natural disasters ever to hit The Bahamas. The estimated damages and losses from it amount to US$3.4 billion (IDB, 2019), a number equivalent to a quarter of the country’s GDP. Dorian’s effects also resulted in the revision of The Bahamas economic growth forecast. The IMF reduced GDP growth estimates for 2019 to 0.9 percent, and the economy is expected to contract in 2020. Under these circumstances, this paper proposes a methodology to track the economic recovery of The Bahamas on a monthly basis. The results suggest that the GDP growth rate in most of the 19 islands that comprise The Bahamas suffered a sharp decrease because of Hurricane Dorian. The islands that suffered the most from this event have recorded significant decreases in their economic activity. Abaco shows a reduction in monthly economic activity of 54 percent comparing September 2019 to September 2018, and Grand Bahama registered a 34 percent decrease. These estimates were obtained by comparing the spatial variation of satellite night lights as an indicator of the country's economic activity before and after Hurricane Dorian. Satellite night lights observed from the space are publicly available and have been used before to measure economic activity. This study also presents a new annual series of regionalized GDP estimates by island from 1992 to 2018, and on a monthly basis, from January 2012 to September 2019.