Systems simulation. The simulation of social system evolution with spiral loops
Systems simulation. The simulation of social system evolution with spiral loops
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系统模拟。
DOI：
10.1002/bs.3830330205
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发表时间：
1988
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Peter P. Merten
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peter P. Merten
为了本文的目的，社会系统进化被认为是自治社会系统相互作用的结果。一个自治的社会系统被认为是一个多层次的决策系统，它基本上使用两种类型的规则来维持它的目标：规则制定（战略）和规则实现（政策）。本文介绍了最近开发的一种方法，该方法可以表示社会系统中规则制定和规则履行的决策过程及其结构和行为差异。这种新方法还允许我们模拟基于这两种决策形式的社会系统的进化过程。该方法将系统动力学中的连续反馈回路概念与智能逻辑回路（我们称之为螺旋回路）相结合。螺旋环概念是基于进化理论和人工智能领域的新发展，用来表示产生质变和进化的规则制定战略决策。使用连续反馈循环概念对社会系统的规则履行政策决策进行建模，这些决策可以在相互作用过程中产生定量变化。这种新方法的潜力通过两个重要的社会系统应用得到了证明：(1)“投资组合模拟模型”帮助我们解释和设计双寡头市场中多业务公司的演变；(2)“技术诀窍转移模型”，该模型解释了欠发达国家跨国公司的演变，并有助于改进同时进行的技术诀窍转移过程。
Social system evolution is taken to be the result of the interaction of autonomous social systems for the purposes of this paper. An autonomous social system is understood to be a multilevel decision-making system which basically uses two types of rules in order to maintain its goals: rule-setting (strategies) and rule-fulfilling (policies). This article gives an introduction to a recently developed methodology which makes it possible to represent rule-setting and rule-fulfilling decision-making processes in social systems with their structural and behavioral differences. This new methodology also allows us to simulate evolutionary processes in social systems based on these two forms of decision making. The new methodology combines the continuous feedback loop concept of system dynamics with intelligent logical loops, which we call spiral loops. The spiral loop concept, which is based on new developments in evolutionary theory and in the field of artificial intelligence, is used to represent the rule-setting strategic decisions which generate qualitative changes and evolution. The continuous feedback loop concept is used to model the rule-fulfilling policy decisions of social systems which can generate quantitative changes in interaction processes. The potential of this new approach is demonstrated with two important social system applications: (1) The “portfolio simulation model” which helps us to explain and to design the evolution of multibusiness firms in duopoly markets; and (2) the “know-how transfer model” which explains the evolution of multinational corporations in less developed countries and which helps to improve the simultaneously ongoing process of know-how transfer.