A Comparative Evaluation of Lumped and Semi-Distributed Conceptual Hydrological Models: Does Model Complexity Enhance Hydrograph Prediction?
A Comparative Evaluation of Lumped and Semi-Distributed Conceptual Hydrological Models: Does Model Complexity Enhance Hydrograph Prediction?
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DOI：
10.3390/hydrology9050089
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发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Emmanuel Okiria;H. Okazawa;K. Noda;Y. Kobayashi;S. Suzuki;Y. Yamazaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Emmanuel Okiria;H. Okazawa;K. Noda;Y. Kobayashi;S. Suzuki;Y. Yamazaki
与更复杂的模型相比，使用更简单的水文模型预测水文现象需要更少的计算能力和输入数据。通常，更复杂的白盒模型预计比简单的灰盒或黑盒模型具有更好的预测能力。但复杂性可能不一定转化为更好的预测准确性，或者在数据稀缺的地区或计算机能力有限的情况下可能不可行。因此，水文科学转向更多的过程为基础的模型需要证明。为了回答这个问题，本文比较了两种水文模型：（a）简单的水箱模型和（B）更复杂的TOPMODEL。更确切地说，在乌干达东部的Atari河流域，作为集总模型的水箱模型和作为半分布式模型的TOPMODEL概念之间的性能差异进行。其目标是：（1）对Tank模型和TOPMODEL进行标定;（2）对Tank模型和TOPMODEL进行验证;（3）对Tank模型和TOPMODEL的性能进行比较。在校准过程中，这两个模型表现出等效性，许多参数集同样可能使可接受的水文模拟。在校准中，坦克模型和TOPMODEL性能接近的“纳什-萨克利夫效率”和“RMSE观测标准偏差比”指标。然而，在验证期间，TOPMODEL表现得比坦克模型好得多。由于TOPMODEL的更好的性能在模型验证过程中，它被认为是更适合在雅达利河流域径流预测。
The prediction of hydrological phenomena using simpler hydrological models requires less computing power and input data compared to the more complex models. Ordinarily, a more complex, white-box model would be expected to have better predictive capabilities than a simple grey box or black-box model. But complexity may not necessarily translate to better prediction accuracy or might be unfeasible in data scarce areas or when computer power is limited. Therefore, the shift of hydrological science towards the more process-based models needs to be justified. To answer this, the paper compares 2 hydrological models: (a) the simpler tank model; and (b) the more complex TOPMODEL. More precisely, the difference in performance between tank model as a lumped model and the TOPMODEL concept as a semi-distributed model in Atari River catchment, in Eastern Uganda was conducted. The objectives were: (1) To calibrate tank model and TOPMODEL; (2) To validate tank model and TOPMODEL; and (3) To compare the performance of tank model and TOPMODEL. During calibration, both models exhibited equifinality, with many parameter sets equally likely to make acceptable hydrological simulations. In calibration, the tank model and TOPMODEL performances were close in terms of ‘Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency’ and ‘RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio’ indices. However, during the validation period, TOPMODEL performed much better than tank model. Owing to TOPMODEL’s better performance during model validation, it was judged to be better suited for making runoff forecasts in Atari River catchment.