Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions.
Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions.
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.abg3848
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发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
McGrath SM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clemens SC;Yamamoto M;Thirumalai K;Giosan L;Richey JN;Nilsson-Kerr K;Rosenthal Y;Anand P;McGrath SM
更新世和未来的南亚季风降雨与温室气体、冰量和南半球湿度有关。南亚降水量和极端变率预计将增加，这是由于21世纪温室气体增加的热力效应，同时南半球印度洋的水汽供应增加。我们重建了南亚夏季风降水和进入孟加拉湾的径流，以评估这些因素在更新世也起作用的程度，当时二氧化碳和冰量发生了大规模的自然变化。南亚降水和径流与大气二氧化碳在地球轨道偏心、倾角和进动带的变化有很强的相关性和滞后性，并与进动带的越赤道风强度密切相关。我们发现，预计季风对持续、快速的高纬度冰川融化和二氧化碳水平上升的反应与过去90万年的动态完全一致。
Pleistocene and future South Asian monsoon rainfall are linked to greenhouse gases, ice volume, and southern hemisphere moisture. South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.
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