Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)
Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)
复制标题
北美多模式系综 (NMME) 中北太平洋大气河流的预测及其与 ENSO 的联系
作者：
Yang Zhou;Hyemi Kim
根据北美多模式Ensemble（NMME）后报（CFSv2，CCSM4，CanCM3，CanCM4，GEOS5和GFDL CM2.1）评估了响应厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）强迫的冬季大气河流（AR）和东北太平洋水汽通量的预测技巧。该技能估计为活跃的AR季节，12月至2月（DJF），初始条件约为11月初。在海表温度（SST）和大尺度大气环流场的预测中，模式对气候水汽通量的低估程度不同，这与不同的气候偏差相对应。模式预报了东北太平洋水汽通量和AR频率的异常，但其异常幅度比再分析的弱。与ENSO对应的异常登陆AR频率显示出显著的区域偏差，突出了区域降水预报的挑战。
Prediction skills of the wintertime atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture flux over the Northeast Pacific in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing are evaluated from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) hindcasts (CFSv2, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, GEOS5, and GFDL CM2.1). The skill is estimated for the active AR season, December–February (DJF) with initial conditions around early November. Models underestimate the climatological moisture flux to different extents corresponding with various climatological biases in predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale atmospheric circulation fields. The anomalous moisture flux and AR frequency over the Northeast Pacific are predicted in the models but in weaker amplitude than the reanalysis. Significant regional biases are shown in the anomalous landfalling AR frequency corresponding with ENSO, underlining the challenge in regional precipitation forecasts.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Lavers, David A.;Allan, Richard P.;Wade, Andrew J.
通讯作者：
Wade, Andrew J.