The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes
The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1208909109
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发表时间：
2012-10-30
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Puotinen, Marji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De'ath, Glenn;Fabricius, Katharina E.;Puotinen, Marji
世界上的珊瑚礁正在退化，现在人们普遍认识到需要减少当地的压力，以抵消日益增加的全球压力的影响。本研究调查了珊瑚覆盖的时空动态，确定了珊瑚死亡的主要驱动因素，并量化了大堡礁的潜在恢复率。基于世界上最广泛的珊瑚礁状况时间序列数据（1985-2012年间对214个珊瑚礁进行的2258次调查），我们显示珊瑚覆盖率从28.0%大幅下降到13.8% (0.53% y(-1))，损失了50.7%的初始珊瑚覆盖率。热带气旋、棘冠海星捕食珊瑚和珊瑚白化分别占估计损失的48%、42%和10%，死亡率为3.38% y（-1）。重要的是，相对原始的北部地区没有出现总体下降。在没有气旋、COTS和白化的情况下，珊瑚覆盖面积的估计增长率为2.85% y(-1)，表明珊瑚礁有很大的恢复能力。在没有COTS的情况下，珊瑚覆盖面积将增加0.89% y(-1)，尽管由于飓风和白化而持续损失。因此，通过改善水质和制定替代控制措施来减少COTS数量，可以防止珊瑚进一步下降并改善大堡礁的前景。然而，这种策略只有在气候条件稳定的情况下才能成功，否则白化和旋风造成的损失将会增加。
The world's coral reefs are being degraded, and the need to reduce local pressures to offset the effects of increasing global pressures is now widely recognized. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral cover, identifies the main drivers of coral mortality, and quantifies the rates of potential recovery of the Great Barrier Reef. Based on the world's most extensive time series data on reef condition (2,258 surveys of 214 reefs over 1985-2012), we show a major decline in coral cover from 28.0% to 13.8% (0.53% y(-1)), a loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. Tropical cyclones, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), and coral bleaching accounted for 48%, 42%, and 10% of the respective estimated losses, amounting to 3.38% y(-1) mortality rate. Importantly, the relatively pristine northern region showed no overall decline. The estimated rate of increase in coral cover in the absence of cyclones, COTS, and bleaching was 2.85% y(-1), demonstrating substantial capacity for recovery of reefs. In the absence of COTS, coral cover would increase at 0.89% y(-1), despite ongoing losses due to cyclones and bleaching. Thus, reducing COTS populations, by improving water quality and developing alternative control measures, could prevent further coral decline and improve the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Such strategies can, however, only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase.