Effects of ocean warming on growth and distribution of dinoflagellates associated with ciguatera fish poisoning in the Caribbean
Effects of ocean warming on growth and distribution of dinoflagellates associated with ciguatera fish poisoning in the Caribbean
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.020
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发表时间：
2015-11-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Litaker, R. Wayne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kibler, Steven R.;Tester, Patricia A.;Litaker, R. Wayne
利用墨西哥湾和加勒比海6个站点的水温预测数据，预测了气候变化对与雪卡毒素鱼中毒（CFP）相关的甲藻Gambierdiscus和Fukuyoa的生长、丰度和分布的潜在影响。来自大加勒比地区6个站点的数据被用来创建水温的统计降尺度预测，使用的是11个全球气候模型的集合和来自WCRP耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的RCP6.0模拟。通过实验得出的温度与生长关系，每个物种的多个菌株的五个甲藻物种的生长速率估计到21世纪世纪结束。预测的增长率表明，到2099年，与CFP有关的甲藻物种的分布和丰度将发生重大变化。水温上升预计将增加墨西哥湾和美国东南大西洋沿岸沿着的甘比迪斯和福永物种的丰度和多样性。在加勒比海，最高平均温度与最高CFP率相关，预计Gambierdiscus caribaeus、Gambierdiscus belizeanus和Fukuyoa ruetzleri将越来越占主导地位。相反，适应较低温度的物种Gambierdiscus carolinianus和Gambierdiscus ribotype 2在加勒比海可能变得不那么普遍，预计将扩大其在墨西哥湾北方的范围，并进一步进入西大西洋。与CFP相关的风险预计也会发生区域性变化，墨西哥湾和美国东南大西洋沿岸的发病率较高，加勒比海的风险稳定或略低。由爱思唯尔公司出版
Projected water temperatures at six sites in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea were used to forecast potential effects of climate change on the growth, abundance and distribution of Gambierdiscus and Fukuyoa species, dinoflagellates associated with ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP). Data from six sites in the Greater Caribbean were used to create statistically downscaled projections of water temperature using an ensemble of eleven global climate models and simulation RCP6.0 from the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Growth rates of five dinoflagellate species were estimated through the end of the 21st century using experimentally derived temperature vs. growth relationships for multiple strains of each species. The projected growth rates suggest the distribution and abundance of CFP-associated dinoflagellate species will shift substantially through 2099. Rising water temperatures are projected to increase the abundance and diversity of Gambierdiscus and Fukuyoa species in the Gulf of Mexico and along the U.S. southeast Atlantic coast. In the Caribbean Sea, where the highest average temperatures correlate with the highest rates of CFP, it is projected that Gambierdiscus caribaeus, Gambierdiscus belizeanus and Fukuyoa ruetzleri will become increasingly dominant. Conversely, the lower temperature-adapted species Gambierdiscus carolinianus and Gambierdiscus ribotype 2 are likely to become less prevalent in the Caribbean Sea and are expected to expand their ranges in the northern Gulf of Mexico and farther into the western Atlantic. The risks associated with CFP are also expected to change regionally, with higher incidence rates in the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. southeast Atlantic coast, with stable or slightly lower risks in the Caribbean Sea. Published by Elsevier B.V.