Validation of "prodromal" criteria to detect individuals at ultra high risk of psychosis: 2 year follow-up
Validation of "prodromal" criteria to detect individuals at ultra high risk of psychosis: 2 year follow-up
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DOI：
10.1016/j.schres.2008.07.012
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发表时间：
2008-10-01
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
McGorry, Patrick D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yung, Alison R.;Nelson, Barnaby;McGorry, Patrick D.
背景：精神分裂症和其他精神障碍“前驱期”个体的识别依赖于预测短期内发病的标准。先前的试验和生物学研究基于这样的观点：某些“超高风险”(UHR) 标准可检测“前驱症状”，但有必要测试这些标准的有效性。目的：评估 UHR 标准在临床人群中的预测有效性。方法：在 292 名寻求帮助的个体中确定 UHR 标准的存在。随访 2 年时，评估了精神障碍新病例的数量。结果：该标准显着预测了 2 年内精神障碍的发病。 16% 的转变率远低于初始队列（超过 40%）。结论：UHR 标准的预测有效性取决于它们所应用的样本。尽管符合这些标准的年轻求助者比不符合这些标准的年轻求助者患精神病的风险更大，但在管理他们时仍需谨慎，因为不能再假定高的转变率。 (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Background: Identification of individuals "prodromal" for schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders relies on criteria that predict onset within a brief period. Previous trials and biological research have been predicated on the view that certain "ultra high risk" (UHR) criteria detect "the prodrome", but there is a need to test the validity of these criteria.Aim: To assess the predictive validity of the UHR criteria in a clinical population.Method: The presence of UHR criteria was determined in 292 help-seeking individuals. At 2 year follow-up the number of new cases of psychotic disorder was assessed.Results: The criteria significantly predicted onset of psychotic disorder within 2 years. The transition rate of 16% was much lower than in initial cohorts (over 40%).Conclusions: The predictive validity of UHR criteria depends on the sample to which they are applied. Although young help-seekers meeting these criteria are at greater risk of psychotic disorder than those who do not meet them, caution is needed in their management, since a high transition rate can no longer be assumed. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.