Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?
Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?
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对外援助、民主化和国内冲突：民主援助如何影响国内冲突？
DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00501.x
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Daniel C. Tirone
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Savun;Daniel C. Tirone
有人认为，民主化国家容易发生内战。然而，并非所有民主化国家都会经历家庭政治暴力。我们认为，“庇护”一些民主化国家的国内政治暴力的关键因素之一是民主援助的接收。接受高水平民主援助的民主化国家比接受很少或没有外部民主援助的国家更不可能经历内部冲突。在民主过渡期间，中央权力削弱，国内团体对未来政治承诺和许诺的不确定性增加。民主援助通过减少承诺问题和不确定性来降低冲突风险。使用工具变量的方法，占援助分配的潜在endoeconomic问题，我们发现实证支持我们的论点。我们的结论是，有一个潜在的路径，以改善民主化的危险，民主援助计划可以在这个过程中发挥重要的积极作用。
It has been suggested that democratizing states are prone to civil wars. However, not all democratizing states experience domestic political violence. We argue that one of the key factors that “shelters” some democratizing states from domestic political violence is the receipt of democracy aid. Democratizing states that receive high levels of democracy assistance are less likely to experience civil conflict than countries that receive little or no external democracy assistance. During democratic transitions, the central authority weakens and uncertainty about future political commitments and promises among domestic groups increases. Democracy aid decreases the risk of conflict by reducing commitment problems and uncertainty. Using an instrumental variables approach that accounts for potential endogeneity problems in aid allocation, we find empirical support for our argument. We conclude that there is a potential path to democracy that ameliorates the perils of democratization, and democracy assistance programs can play a significant positive role in this process.