Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science
Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11625-006-0011-8
复制
发表时间：
2006-10-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Mimura, Nobuo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hay, John;Mimura, Nobuo
只有在以下三个方面充分协调的情况下才能实现可持续性：⑴经济发展; ⑵在公平的基础上满足不断增长和变化的人类需求和愿望; ⑶保护有限的自然资源和环境承受人类活动造成的多重压力的能力。在更广泛的亚太区域和地方一级的气候风险和适应对策的背景下审查了气候与可持续性之间的联系。这些发现被用来支持和说明可持续发展科学的几个影响。气候变化既被视为提高可持续性的障碍，也被视为机遇，尽管在大多数情况下，前者的重要性远远超过后者。对气候变化脆弱性和风险的评估至关重要，因为这些评估有助于决定适应资源的最佳投资方向。它们还表明，由于适应的局限性，是否需要加强全球减少温室气体排放的努力。在实践中，适应在许多层面上进行，基本上包括社区和企业一级的具体干预，以及国家和国际加强适应扶持环境的努力。尽管大多数适应措施需要反映当地条件，包括当地的适应能力，但对适应进行区域评估是有益的。上述调查结果部分基于一系列区域和地方案例研究，由此提出了若干进一步研究的建议，这些研究将有助于减少执行应对措施的障碍，以减少与气候有关的风险，包括对可持续性的不利影响。这些建议涉及的主题有：最佳利用预测能力、说明气候变化与可持续性之间的联系、所需适应速度和程度的影响、加强适应能力的体制对策、利用新技术和传统技术、社会责任的多个层面、以及在社区和企业一级加强有利于适应的环境。如果这些建议得到落实，它们将反过来有助于在量化适应成本和收益、确定适应备选办法的优先次序、评估可持续发展权衡和监测适应举措的成功方面实现急需的改进。如果将这些改进纳入方便用户的适应决策支持工具，其效用将更大。
Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.