Plantation forestry in Brazil:projections to 2050
Plantation forestry in Brazil:projections to 2050
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巴西的人工林：到 2050 年的预测
DOI：
10.1016/s0961-9534(98)00061-0
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
P. Fearnside
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Fearnside
巴西是幸运的，因为它有大片土地，目前没有森林，但适合种植森林。该国营林种植园的面积和区域分布的变化意味着各种各样的环境和社会影响。为了分析这些影响，以及评估气候变化对巴西种植园的潜在影响，以及评估通过增加巴西森林种植园的面积来应对全球变暖的相关建议的影响，需要对种植园的未来发展进行预测。这种参考情景提供了控制或“一切照常”标准，对照该标准，可以比较气候变化和/或为帮助减缓气候变化而开展的额外营林或其他活动所影响的情况。假设气候、技术、人均木制品消费量和巴西在国际贸易中的份额保持不变，2050年的种植园面积将是1991年的3.2倍。
Brazil is fortunate in having large areas of land that are not currently forested but that are suitable for silvicultural plantations. Changes in the area and regional distribution of the country’s silvicultural plantations imply a wide variety of environmental and social impacts. Projections of future development of plantation silviculture are needed for analyzing these impacts, as well as to serve as a reference scenario for evaluating the potential effects of climatic change on Brazil’s plantations, and for the related task of evaluating the implications of proposals to combat global warming by increasing the area of silvicultural plantations in Brazil beyond the extent to which they would otherwise expand. Such a reference scenario provides the control, or “business as usual” standard, against which one can compare the situation as affected by climatic change and/or by additional silvicultural or other activities carried out to help mitigate climatic change. Assuming constancy of climate, technology, per-capita consumption of wood products, and Brazil’s share of international trade, the area of plantations in 2050 would be 3.2 times larger than the area in 1991.