Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply
Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-00949-9
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发表时间：
2021-01-11
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gernaat, David E. H. J.;de Boer, Harmen Sytze;van Vuuren, Detlef P.
可再生能源依赖于气候，可能容易受到未来气候变化的影响。在这里，我们使用气候和综合评估模型来估计这对关键可再生能源的影响。未来的潜力和成本是量化的两个变暖的情况下，八种技术：公用事业规模和屋顶光伏，集中太阳能发电，陆上和海上风能，第一代和木质纤维素生物能源，水电。然后，生成的成本-供应曲线用于估计能源系统的影响。在基线变暖情景中，最大的影响是增加生物能源的可用性，尽管这取决于CO2施肥的强度。对水电和风能的影响尚不确定，有些地区有所减少，有些地区有所增加，对太阳能的影响较小。在未来的减缓情景中，这些影响较小，但能源系统的反应与基线情景中的反应相似，因为减缓情景对可再生能源的依赖程度更高。
Renewable energy resources, which depend on climate, may be susceptible to future climate change. Here we use climate and integrated assessment models to estimate this effect on key renewables. Future potential and costs are quantified across two warming scenarios for eight technologies: utility-scale and rooftop photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind energy, first-generation and lignocellulosic bioenergy, and hydropower. The generated cost-supply curves are then used to estimate energy system impacts. In a baseline warming scenario, the largest impact is increased availability of bioenergy, though this depends on the strength of CO2 fertilization. Impacts on hydropower and wind energy are uncertain, with declines in some regions and increases in others, and impacts on solar power are minor. In a future mitigation scenario, these impacts are smaller, but the energy system response is similar to that in the baseline scenario given a larger reliance of the mitigation scenario on renewables.