Markets as Artifacts: Aggregate Efficiency from Zero-Intelligence Traders
Markets as Artifacts: Aggregate Efficiency from Zero-Intelligence Traders
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市场作为人工制品：零智能交易者的总体效率
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
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通讯作者：
S. Sunder
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作者：
S. Sunder
建立一个系统的数学理论或模拟该系统的可能性，并不取决于是否有一个关于支配系统组成部分的自然规律的适当的微观理论。这样一个微观理论可能确实是完全无关紧要的。赫伯特A. Simon，The Sciences of the Artificial，p. 19.有三个现象--经济人的假设属性和观察属性之间的差异，自然和人工制品之间的联系，以及计算机作为知识来源的使用--吸引了赫伯特。西蒙他为每个领域建立了一个新的范式--有限理性来处理差异，人工科学作为其与自然的联系，人工智能用于创造知识。在本文中，我们表明，人工智能和计算机智能的科学也掌握着理解个人行为和市场结果之间差距的关键。当被视为人类的人工制品时，市场科学不需要建立在个人行为科学的基础上。我们概述了如何，在90年代，计算机模拟使我们能够发现，配置效率-一个关键特征的市场结果-在很大程度上是独立的个体行为的变化在经典条件下。《人工科学》（Sciences of the Artificial）提出了这种独立性，并指出了它的好处：这种从屋顶到尚未建成的地基的摩天大楼式的科学结构是可能的，因为系统在每一层的行为只取决于下一层系统的一个非常近似的、简化的、抽象的特征。这是幸运的，否则桥梁和飞机的安全可能取决于观察基本粒子的"八重方法"的正确性（Simon 1996，第16页）。
The possibility of building a mathematical theory of a system or of simulating that system does not depend on having an adequate microtheory of the natural laws that govern the system components. Such a microtheory might indeed be simply irrelevant. Herbert A. Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial, p. 19. Three phenomena - the disparity between the assumed and observed attributes of economic man, the link between nature and artifacts, and the use of computers as a source of knowledge - fascinated Herbert A. Simon. He built a new paradigm for each field-bounded rationality to deal with the disparity, the science of the artificial as its link to nature, and artificial intelligence for creation of knowledge. In this paper we show that the sciences of the artificial and computer intelligence also hold the key to an understanding of the disparity between individual behavior and market outcomes. When seen as human artifacts, a science of markets need not be built from the science of individual behavior. We outline how, in the nineties, computer simulations enabled us to discover that allocative efficiency - a key characteristic market outcomes - is largely independent of variations in individual behavior under classical conditions. The Sciences of the Artificial suggests such independence and points to its benefits: This skyhook-skyscraper construction of science from the roof down to the yet unconstructed foundations was possible because the behavior of the system at each level depended on only a very approximate, simplified, abstracted characterization of the system at the level next beneath. This is lucky, else the safety of bridges and airplanes might depend on the correctness of the "Eightfold Way" of looking at elementary particles (Simon 1996, p. 16).