APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS WITH LOWER AND UPPER BOUNDS TO HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS WITH LOWER AND UPPER BOUNDS TO HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
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具有上下界的概率分布在水文频率分析中的应用
DOI：
10.2208/prohe.43.121
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kaori Tosa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Takara;Kaori Tosa
本文介绍了适用于概率分布的上限和下限的水文频率分析。两种分布被应用于一些极值降水和河流流量数据集：Slade型四参数对数正态分布和Kanda（1981）提出的具有上下限的极值分布（EVLUB）。他们的拟合优度的数据集进行评估的标准最小二乘准则（SLSC）。使用bootstrap方法的分析表明，这些分布的上限给分位数估计的变异性小于三参数对数正态分布的无限上限。最后，本文讨论了将可能最大降水（PMP）或可能最大洪水（PMF）作为上限纳入频率分析模型。
This paper describes the applicability of probability distributions with both upper- and lower-bounds to hydrologic frequency analysis. Two distributions are applied to some data sets of extreme-value precipitation and river discharge: the Slade-type four-parameter log-normal distribution and the extremevalue distribution with upper- and lower-bounds (EVLUB) proposed by Kanda (1981). Their goodness of fit to the data sets is assessed in terms of the standard least-square criterion (SLSC). The analysis using the bootstrap method indicates that these distributions with the upper-bound give less variability in quantile estimates than the three-parameter log-normal distribution with the infinite upper-bound. Finally, this paper discusses incorporation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) or probable maximum floods (PMF) into the frequency analysis models as the upper bounds.