Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method
Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method
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DOI：
10.3390/su12072689
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发表时间：
2020-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
E. Rasoulinezhad;Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary;Ji-eun Sung;Nisit Panthamit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Rasoulinezhad;Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary;Ji-eun Sung;Nisit Panthamit
当前有争议的全球问题之一是气候变化或全球变暖作为重要的地缘政治风险。考虑地缘政治风险的能源转型进程尚未得到重视。本文利用ARDL边界检验方法，对俄罗斯1993-2018年期间的能源转型模式进行了建模和分析，重点考虑了地缘政治风险因素，为文献做出了贡献。主要结果证明，经济增长、人口增长和通货膨胀率对俄罗斯能源转型的长期负面影响，而二氧化碳排放、地缘政治风险、汇率和金融开放对俄罗斯能源转型运动有积极影响。此外，我们发现，在短期内，能源转型改善与经济增长、二氧化碳排放、人口增长和通货膨胀率呈负相关，而地缘政治风险、汇率和金融开放是促进该国能源转型的唯一变量。作为主要的结束语，俄罗斯的政策制定者应该提请注意该国的长期能源计划。此外，降低联邦预算对石油和天然气收入的依赖将是一项有用的政策，可以减少经济增长对该国能源转型运动的负面影响。另一个建议是确定该国的快速脱碳政策。
One of the current debatable global problems is climate change or global warming as crucial geopolitical risks. The progress of energy transition by considering geopolitical risk has not been considered seriously yet. This paper contributes to the literature by modeling and analyzing energy transition patterns in Russia with emphasis on geopolitical risks factor as a giant fossil fuels producer using the ARDL bounds testing method over the period of 1993–2018. The main results proved long-run negative impact of economic growth, population growth and inflation rate on energy transition of Russia, while CO2 emissions, geopolitical risk, exchange rate and financial openness have positive impacts on energy transition movement in the country. Furthermore, we found out that in the short-run, the relationship between energy transition improvement and economic growth, CO2 emissions, population growth and inflation rate is negative, while geopolitical risk, exchange rate and financial openness are the only variables which accelerate energy transition in the country. As major concluding remarks, Russia’s policy makers should draw attention to the long-run energy plans in the country. Furthermore, lowering dependency of Federals’ budget to the oil and gas revenues would be a useful policy to reduce negative impact of economic growth on energy transition movement in the country. Another recommendation is to determine rapid decarbonizing policies in the country.