The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment
复制标题
基础设施投资的宏观经济后果
DOI：
10.3386/w27625
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
V. Ramey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Ramey
加大基础设施投资能否提高美国的长期产出？基础设施项目是一个良好的短期经济刺激？本文使用宏观经济学文献的见解来解决这些问题。我开始分析政府投资的影响在一个程式化的新古典模型和一个中等规模的新凯恩斯主义模型，突出的经济机制，管理短期和长期的影响的强度。分析证实了早先的结论，即基础设施项目固有的执行延迟在大多数情况下会降低短期乘数。相比之下，当政府资本具有生产力时，长期乘数可能相当大。此外，如果经济从低于社会最佳公共资本量的点开始，这些乘数就会更大。转向实证估计，我使用的理论模型来解释计量经济学的挑战，估计公共基础设施的产出弹性。利用模型模拟产生的人工数据和现有经验工作的扩展，我证明了一般均衡效应和公共资本的最优选择可能会给产出弹性估计带来向上的偏差。最后，我回顾并扩展了一些经验估计的短期效应，重点是基础设施支出的ARRA。
Can greater investment in infrastructure raise U.S. long-run output? Are infrastructure projects a good short-run stimulus to the economy? This paper uses insights from the macroeconomics literature to address these questions. I begin by analyzing the effects of government investment in both a stylized neoclassical model and a medium-scale New Keynesian model, highlighting the economic mechanisms that govern the strength of the short-run and long-run impacts. The analysis confirms earlier findings that the implementation delays inherent in infrastructure projects reduce short-run multipliers in most cases. In contrast, long-run multipliers can be sizable when government capital is productive. Moreover, these multipliers are greater if the economy starts from a point below the socially optimal amount of public capital. Turning to empirical estimation, I use the theoretical model to explain the econometric challenges to estimating the elasticity of output to public infrastructure. Using both artificial data generated by simulations of the model and extensions of existing empirical work, I demonstrate how both general equilibrium effects and optimal choice of public capital are likely to impart upward biases to output elasticity estimates. Finally, I review and extend some empirical estimates of the short-run effects, focusing on infrastructure spending in the ARRA.
DOI：
10.3386/w25487
发表时间：
2019-01
期刊：
Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal
影响因子：
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作者：
Treb Allen;Costas Arkolakis
通讯作者：
Treb Allen;Costas Arkolakis