On judging the credibility of climate predictions
On judging the credibility of climate predictions
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0813-5
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发表时间：
2015-09
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
F. Otto;C. Ferro;Thomas E. Fricker;E. Suckling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Otto;C. Ferro;Thomas E. Fricker;E. Suckling
只有当我们已经判断了预测的可信度时，才能将预测纳入未来的规划和决策中。在预测未来气候方面，这是出了名的困难和有争议。通过回顾关于气候模型性能的认知性争论，我们讨论了如何对气候预测的可信度做出判断并证明其合理性。我们提出了一个新的边界论点，证明了基于过去可能不同的预测问题的表现来做出这样的判断是合理的。这鼓励更明确地使用数据来对未来气候预测的可信度做出量化判断，并培训气候预测的用户成为更好的可信度评判者。我们使用对年平均、全球平均地表气温的年代际预测来说明该方法。
Incorporating a prediction into future planning and decision making is advisable only if we have judged the prediction’s credibility. This is notoriously difficult and controversial in the case of predictions of future climate. By reviewing epistemic arguments about climate model performance, we discuss how to make and justify judgments about the credibility of climate predictions. We propose a new bounding argument that justifies basing such judgments on the past performance of possibly dissimilar prediction problems. This encourages a more explicit use of data in making quantitative judgments about the credibility of future climate predictions, and in training users of climate predictions to become better judges of credibility. We illustrate the approach using decadal predictions of annual mean, global mean surface air temperature.