Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis
Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis
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事后偏见的动机解释：个体差异分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
1983
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Tesser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Campbell;A. Tesser
当人们得知某件事的结果或某个问题的正确答案时，他们会高估其事先的可预测性：也就是说，他们倾向于相信自己“一直沿着着一切”。认知和动机的解释后见之明偏见的简要回顾和一项研究旨在测试动机的解释报告。具体而言，有人假设，两个动机，需要可预测性和自我展示的动机，在强度的个体差异，应呈正相关的个体差异的程度后见之明偏见。68名受试者在参加标准的后见之明偏见范式之前完成了教条主义量表和不容忍模糊量表（可预测性动机）以及马洛-克朗社会期望量表（自我展示动机）。这两种动机的措施，以及自我报告的自我参与措施，正相关的量后见之明的偏见表现出来。这一结果的解释后见之明和其他概念上相关的现象的影响进行了讨论。
When individuals learn the outcome of an event or the correct answer to a question, they overestimate its prior predictability: that is, they tend to believe they “knew it all along.” Cognitive and motivational interpretations of hindsight bias are briefly reviewed and a study designed to test the motivational interpretation is reported. Specifically, it was hypothesized that individual differences in the strengths of two motives, a need for predictability and a self-presentation motive, should be positively related to individual differences in the magnitude of hindsight bias. Sixty-eight subjects completed a Dogmatism Scale and an Intolerance for Ambiguity Scale (the predictability motive) and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (the self-presentation motive) before participating in a standard hindsight-bias paradigm. Measures of both motives, as well as a self-reported ego-involvement measure, were positively associated with the amount of hindsight bias exhibited. Implications of this result for interpretations of hindsight and other conceptually related phenomena are discussed.