Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method
Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method
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气候变化对伊斯坦布尔供水区极端流量的影响：区域气候模型和降尺度方法的效用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
I. Yucel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Kara;I. Yucel
本文研究了气候变化对土耳其伊斯坦布尔Omerli盆地当前和未来气候条件下平均和极端流量变化的影响。利用EU-ENSEMBLES项目的15个区域气候模式输出和基于地球物理变量局部影响的降尺度方法进行了比较分析。采用自动校准算法，利用观测到的日气温和降水，对研究流域的Hydrologiska byr<s:1> vattenbalansavdell -ning （HBV）模型参数进行优化。校正后的HBV模型利用参考（1960-1990年）和情景（2071-2100年）的降水和温度数据（有和没有降尺度方法）来模拟日流量。洪水指数来源于日流量，并通过比较当前和未来气候对应的模拟值来评估其在四季和年中的变化。所有气候模式都严重低估了降水，而降尺度改善了它们的低估特征，特别是对极端事件。根据气候模式的降水输入，HBV也显著低估了所有季节的日平均和极端流量。然而，这种低估的特征在所有季节都得到了重要的改善，特别是在春季和冬季，通过使用缩小规模的投入。从参考到未来的极端流量变化在冬季和春季增加，在秋季和夏季减少。这些变化在减少投入时更为显著。就目前的时间而言，将来在给定的回潮期将经历更高的流量，因此，在规划奥默利水库时，应维持有效的储存和用水。
This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960–1990) and scenario (2071–2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.
我相信气候变化，但我们在规划未来时需要采取多大的预防措施？
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Beven K
通讯作者：
Beven K