China's international trade and air pollution in the United States
China's international trade and air pollution in the United States
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中国的国际贸易与美国的空气污染
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1312860111
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发表时间：
2014-02-04
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Guan, Dabo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Jintai;Pan, Da;Guan, Dabo
意义 国际贸易通过重新分配与商品和服务生产相关的排放并可能改变全球排放总量来影响全球空气污染和运输。在这里，我们结合中国双边贸易的经济排放分析和大气化学物质传输模型来分析贸易影响。我们对美国空气质量的重点分析表明，中国与出口生产相关的空气污染每天最多占美国西部硫酸盐污染的 12-24%。由于排放和大气传输变化的综合影响，美国将制造业外包给中国可能会降低美国西部的空气质量，而东部的空气质量则会有所改善。中国是世界上最大的人为空气污染物排放国，大量中国污染物通过大气输送到包括美国在内的其他国家。然而，中国排放量的很大一部分是由于制造供外国消费的商品造成的。在这里，我们将经济排放分析和大气化学传输模型联系起来，分析了与贸易相关的中国空气污染物排放对全球大气环境的影响。我们发现，2006年，中国人为排放的二氧化硫、氮氧化物、一氧化碳和黑碳的36%、27%、22%和17%与出口货物的生产有关。对于每种污染物，中国出口相关排放量的约 21% 归因于中国对美国的出口。大气模型显示，2006年，与出口相关的中国污染的迁移贡献了美国西部年平均地表硫酸盐浓度的3%至10%，以及臭氧的0.5%至1.5%。中国的污染还导致洛杉矶地区和美国东部许多地区2006年不符合美国臭氧标准的时间增加一天或更长。每天，与出口相关的中国污染最多占美国西部硫酸盐浓度的 12-24%。由于美国将制造业外包给中国，2006年美国西部的硫酸盐污染有所增加，而美国东部的硫酸盐污染有所减少，反映出中国污染输送加强与美国排放减少之间的竞争效应。我们的研究结果与减少跨境空气污染的国际努力相关。
Significance International trade affects global air pollution and transport by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services and by potentially altering the total amount of global emissions. Here we analyze the trade influences by combining an economic-emission analysis on China’s bilateral trade and atmospheric chemical transport modeling. Our focused analysis on US air quality shows that Chinese air pollution related to production for exports contributes, at a maximum on a daily basis, 12–24% of sulfate pollution over the western United States. The US outsourcing of manufacturing to China might have reduced air quality in the western United States with an improvement in the east, due to the combined effects of changes in emissions and atmospheric transport. China is the world’s largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollutants, and measurable amounts of Chinese pollution are transported via the atmosphere to other countries, including the United States. However, a large fraction of Chinese emissions is due to manufacture of goods for foreign consumption. Here, we analyze the impacts of trade-related Chinese air pollutant emissions on the global atmospheric environment, linking an economic-emission analysis and atmospheric chemical transport modeling. We find that in 2006, 36% of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide, 27% of nitrogen oxides, 22% of carbon monoxide, and 17% of black carbon emitted in China were associated with production of goods for export. For each of these pollutants, about 21% of export-related Chinese emissions were attributed to China-to-US export. Atmospheric modeling shows that transport of the export-related Chinese pollution contributed 3–10% of annual mean surface sulfate concentrations and 0.5–1.5% of ozone over the western United States in 2006. This Chinese pollution also resulted in one extra day or more of noncompliance with the US ozone standard in 2006 over the Los Angeles area and many regions in the eastern United States. On a daily basis, the export-related Chinese pollution contributed, at a maximum, 12–24% of sulfate concentrations over the western United States. As the United States outsourced manufacturing to China, sulfate pollution in 2006 increased in the western United States but decreased in the eastern United States, reflecting the competing effect between enhanced transport of Chinese pollution and reduced US emissions. Our findings are relevant to international efforts to reduce transboundary air pollution.