Mathematical modelling Treponema infection in free-ranging Olive baboons (Papio anubis) in Tanzania
Mathematical modelling Treponema infection in free-ranging Olive baboons (Papio anubis) in Tanzania
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100638
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发表时间：
2022-10-22
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Taylor，Dewey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hawkins，Diamond;Kusi，Roland;Taylor，Dewey
雅司病是由梅毒螺旋体(TPE)引起的一种慢性感染，该细菌被认为是人类独有的病原体，但最近在非人类灵长类动物中发现并确认。在本文中，我们建立了第一个以野生橄榄狒狒为处理对象的TPE感染的间隔性ODE模型。我们求出了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点，并给出了无病平衡点局部和全局稳定的条件。我们根据坦桑尼亚曼亚拉湖国家公园的数据对模型进行了校准。我们使用该模型来帮助公园管理者制定有效的治疗策略。我们的研究表明，治疗率的提高会降低疾病患病率。这表明，在封闭人群中，可以通过加强管理来消除TPE。具体地说，我们表明，如果整个人口至少每5-6年接受一次治疗，就可以达到无病平衡。此外，我们还证明，要在15年内看到TPE感染大幅下降到接近消除的水平，整个人口需要每2-3年接受一次治疗。
Yaws is a chronic infection caused by the bacteriumTreponema pallidumsusp.pertenue(TPE) that was thought to be an exclusive human pathogen but was recently found and confirmed in nonhuman primates. In this paper, we develop the first compartmental ODE model forTPEinfection with treatment of wild olive baboons. We solve for disease-free and endemic equilibria and give conditions on local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. We calibrate the model based on the data from Lake Manyara National Park in Tanzania. We use the model to help the park managers devise an effective strategy for treatment. We show that an increasing treatment rate yields a decrease in disease prevalence. This indicates thatTPEcan be eliminated through intense management in closed population. Specifically, we show that if the whole population is treated at least once every 5-6 years, a disease-free equilibrium can be reached. Furthermore, we demonstrate that to see a substantial decrease ofTPEinfection to near-elimination levels within 15 years, the whole population needs to be treated every 2-3 years.