Exploring temporality in socio-ecological resilience through experiences of the 2015-16 El Niño across the Tropics
Exploring temporality in socio-ecological resilience through experiences of the 2015-16 El Niño across the Tropics
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通过 2015-16 年热带地区厄尔尼诺现象的经历探索社会生态恢复力的暂时性
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.01.004
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Whitfield S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Whitfield S
在长期气候变化和短期气候冲击的背景下，时间动态深刻影响着生态系统和社会。在热带低收入地区，气候波动的风险和脆弱性都很高，这些波动的频率，持续时间和趋势是社会生态恢复力的重要决定因素。在本文中，六个不同的社会生态系统（SES）在热带地区的动态-从农业和园艺系统在非洲和大洋洲的管理森林在东南亚和南美洲的沿海系统-检查与2015-16年厄尔尼诺现象，以及气候变化的长期背景下，这一短期的“事件”发生。在每一种情况下，都详细说明了厄尔尼诺现象期间各系统的社会生态特点和气候现象，并提出了对观测到的影响和对这种影响的反应的思考。借鉴这些案例，我们认为，SES的弹性（或缺乏），在一定程度上，是长期的历史趋势，以及在这段历史中的短期冲击的产物。政治和经济的锁定和依赖，以及源于过去经验的记忆和社会学习，都有助于当代系统的复原力。我们认为，气候冲击的经验可以提供一个窗口，洞察未来的生态系统的反应，结合历史的观点和学习，从多种背景和案例，可以是一个重要的基础，努力建立适当的长期弹性战略，调解不断变化和不确定的气候的影响。
In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term ‘event’ occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates.