Effects of snowfalls on motor vehicle collisions, injuries, and fatalities
Effects of snowfalls on motor vehicle collisions, injuries, and fatalities
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2004.048926
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发表时间：
2005-01-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Warner, KE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eisenberg, D;Warner, KE
目标。我们估计了1975年至2000年间降雪对美国交通事故率的影响。我们将1975年至2000年间48个相邻州的所有致命车祸记录（140万起）与各州的每日天气数据联系起来。对于包括20世纪90年代17个州在内的子样本，我们还将所有记录在案的仅造成财产损失的撞车事故（2290万起）和非致命伤害的撞车事故（1350万起）与每日天气数据联系起来。采用负二项回归，我们调查了降雪对碰撞计数的影响。包括固定效应和其他控制，以解决潜在的混杂因素。雪天的致命车祸比干旱天少（发生率比[IRR] = 0.93； 95%可信区间[CI = 0.90, 0.97），但非致命伤害事故（IRR= 1.23; 95% CI=1.18, 1.29）和仅财产损害事故（IRR= 1.45; 95% CI= 1.38, 1.52）较多。就死亡人数而言，一年中的第一个雪天比其他雪天危险得多（IRR=1.14; 95% CI=1.08, 1.21），特别是对于老年司机（IRR= 1.34; 95% CI= 1.23, 1.50）。与雪有关的交通事故造成的伤亡是巨大的。我们的研究结果可能有助于估计气象和交通安全专家目前提出的安全创新的潜在效益。
Objectives. We estimated the effects of snowfalls on US traffic crash rates between 1975 and 2000.Methods. We linked all recorded fatal crashes (1.4 million) for the 48 contiguous states from 1975 through 2000 to daily state weather data. For a subsample including 17 states during the 1990s, we also linked all recorded property-damage-only crashes (22.9 million) and nonfatal-injury crashes (13.5 million) to daily weather data. Employing negative binomial regressions, we investigated the effects of snowfall on crash counts. Fixed effects and other controls were included to address potential confounders.Results. Snow days had fewer fatal crashes than dry days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI = 0.90, 0.97), but more nonfatal-injury crashes (IRR = 1.23; 95% CI=1.18, 1.29) and property-damage-only crashes (IRR= 1.45; 95% CI = 1.38, 1.52). The first snowy day of the year was substantially more dangerous than other snow days in terms of fatalities (IRR=1.14; 95% CI=1.08, 1.21), particularly for elderly drivers (IRR= 1.34; 95% CI = 1.23, 1.50).Conclusions. The toll of snow-related crashes is substantial. Our results may help estimate the potential benefits of safety innovations currently proposed by meteorology and traffic safety experts.