Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries
Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-019-0353-3
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Dommenget, Dietmar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Freund, Mandy B.;Henley, Benjamin J.;Dommenget, Dietmar
厄尔尼诺事件在空间模式和强度上有很大差异。典型的东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件在赤道太平洋远东地区有最强的海表温度异常，而在中太平洋厄尔尼诺事件期间，海洋变暖的峰值出现在更西边。事件类型对全球温度和降水异常的位置和强度的影响各不相同。有证据表明，中太平洋厄尔尼诺现象已变得更加普遍，一些研究预测，随着气候变化的持续，这一趋势将继续下去。在这里，我们确定的空间和时间模式，观察到的海表温度，区分东部和中部太平洋厄尔尼诺事件在热带太平洋的演变。我们发现，这些模式是由27个季节性解决珊瑚记录，然后我们用它来重建中太平洋和东太平洋厄尔尼诺活动在过去的四个世纪的网络记录。我们发现，自20世纪末以来，中太平洋事件的同时增加和东太平洋事件的减少，导致中太平洋事件与东太平洋事件的比例在多世纪背景下是不寻常的。与过去的四个世纪相比，最近30年的时间里，东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件较少，但更为强烈。
El Nino events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Nino events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Nino events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Nino events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Nino events.