Stochastic weather type simulation for regional climate change impact assessment
Stochastic weather type simulation for regional climate change impact assessment
复制标题
区域气候变化影响评估的随机天气类型模拟
DOI：
10.1029/94wr01840
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发表时间：
1994
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
R. Wilby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Wilby
A stochastic model is developed for the synthesis of daily precipitation by weather type analysis. Daily rainfall at two sites in southern England is related to the Lamb weather types by using conditional probabilities. Time series of circulation patterns and hence rainfall are then generated using a Markov representation of matrices of transition probabilities between weather types. The model reproduces key aspects of the historic rainfall regime at daily, monthly, and annual temporal resolutions. The general validity of the methodology as a means of disaggregating general circulation model predictions into finer spatial scales for water resource studies is discussed. Several limitations are identified of which the subjectivity introduced by the weather type classification system and the nonstationarity of the precipitation characteristics are the most serious.
